PS .25/.50 - is there value in this turn bet?

[Jeff P]

This is the second orbit at my table, and all I've really been able to pick up in general is that this table overall is pretty loose pre-flop and most hands are going to showdown.

Do I have enough equity to make this turn bet with 2nd pair and the nut flush draw or should I check here? The pot is small and there are alot of players still in the pot so I don't expect to win it right here (I figure at least one or two will call here) so it's not really a semi-bluff as much as a value bet.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

[Jaran]

I like this bet.

-Jaran

[DrModern]

Looks g00t to me. If there are a lot of callers, you are not too unhappy, your pair is dece in this unaggressive situation, plus you have a bunch of outs against an ace. If several people call then you get a raise from LP (sort of unlikely at this point), I call and hope to hit the flush. If I miss, I check-fold then river. If I bet and am called by one player I bet again on pretty much any river.

[BTR_Rounder]

Yes, without a doubt there's value. MP2 and CO would have bet any A with the flush draw on the board. BB might have been trying for a check raise and failed, but it's doubtful. You have 2nd pair with top kicker and if someone happens to have hit a set, a flush, or two pair you have a 9 out redraw to the nuts.

[cassady]

[ QUOTE ]

Do I have enough equity to make this turn bet with 2nd pair and the nut flush draw or should I check here? The pot is small and there are alot of players still in the pot so I
don't expect to win it right here (I figure at least one or two will call here) so it's not really a semi-bluff as much as a value bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I like this bet for 4 reasons:

1). There is a good chance you are ahead. I'll guess somwhere between 30% and 50% given a typical table with this many players to the flop.

2). If you are not ahead, you have a good chance of drawing to a winning hand: 9 outs for the nut flush, 2 outs for trips, 3 outs for 2 pair (though this does put a possible straight on the board). If not ahead now, you have almost a 30% chance of being ahead on the river.

3). A ton of the people who are going to be calling you here are going to be drawing far slimmer than they expect.

4). Even if your draw hits, you are still likely to get action if there is a big club out there, so your implied odds are good.

[johnnytt]

I think this bet is OK might win pot right there as you may have the best hand right now if not you have nut flush draw outs as well. I think if you are going to check call here you might as well bet and try to take the pot yourself.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Good bet.

[Gary Frates]

I'd bet. If you don't bet and another club comes up people might not come along if you bet usless they had a Qc, 9c, or 8c or maybe a little lower.

[OziBattler]

nice bet. well played. I dont normally care for results but i hope it worked out for hero this time.

[SixT4]

Well played.