General Razz Fourth Street Questions - Catching Bad

[pipes]

Okay, studying up on Razz in preparation for the Stars HORSE games. In Sklansky on Poker, DS describes folding your hand if you catch bad and your opponent catches good a major money maker. This is the case if there was only one raise on 3rd street.

In the 15/30 games, you would be receiving 58/15 or 3.86 to 1. Lets say your original 3 card hand appeared to be slightly lower and the cards that were out on 3rd were basically neutral. How is this a big money maker as in the worst case scenario you are probably not more than 2.3 to 1 dog?

Expanding abit to the Stars 5/10 and 10/20 structures, it appears as if this situation will give you pot odds of around 4.2 to 1. Do these increased odds change anything?

Many 3rd street strategies are built around this concept, so I just want to get a firm understanding.

Thanks

[Andy B]

The short answer is that the betting doesn't stop on fourth street. You're basically hoping that you will catch good while the other guy catches bad, and that only happens a smallish percentage of the time. Your hand is a significant playing loser, and you gain a lot if you fold fourth and your opponent doesn't.

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
The short answer is that the betting doesn't stop on fourth street. You're basically hoping that you will catch good while the other guy catches bad, and that only happens a smallish percentage of the time. Your hand is a significant playing loser, and you gain a lot if you fold fourth and your opponent doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, after posting I thought I may have lobbed up a softball...

But what are the odds of catching up? I thought it was around 4 to 1. Once you catch up, you may then be way ahead as he may have a pair since he had an automatic 4th street bet.

But I understand he has certain playing advantages over you, but it still doesn't feel like a huge mistake if your 3 card hand was slightly better, cards are live and your bad card was Ten.

[Xellos]

I think this heavily depends on how bad you catch vs how good they catch. It also depends on how likely you are to "catch up" to them on 5th street and still be drawing worse than they are. While you may be a 2.3:1 or whatever dog, the betting isn't going to magically end on 4th street, even worse, it doubles. I think there are probably some spots where you could profitably take one off on 4th after only a completion on third, but they are probably obvious ones like starting with 3 wheel cards and being up against 87, but even then you are not in good shape:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2c Kd 3h 169122 33.82 330853 66.17 25 0.01 0.338
6s 5c 7d 8h 330853 66.17 169122 33.82 25 0.01 0.662

[dibbs]

Sorry for the slight hijack pipes, but a question for you and the others:

Is the Sklansky on Poker Razz section pretty much the go to reading for this game? The section in Super System is lacking.

Thanks guys.

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry for the slight hijack pipes, but a question for you and the others:

Is the Sklansky on Poker Razz section pretty much the go to reading for this game? The section in Super System is lacking.

Thanks guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it is. Not much out there. There's also a decent section in Championship Stud written by Linda Johnson. Mason actually rated this section an 8. The advice was not
as extensive as Sklansky on Poker though. But I liked reading something else for repetition.

[wahooriver]

As a recent convert to Razz (I really find it much more interesting than hold'em), I wonder about the analysis. Like almost every situation in poker, you are playing the opponent as much as you are playing the cards.

So, in these situations I am considering these as possible variables:

1. How good were my 3 starting cards?
2. How good were my opponents 3 starting cards? (would he/she call a bet with only 2 good starters)
3. What is the probability that my opponent paired?
4. How will my opponent respond if I hit on 5th and "catch up"? This is the implied odds consideration.

I often will call on 4th, hoping to get cards that put me back ahead, with the assumption that my hand converts to +EV. Because I do not really know what my opponent has, I would not know how to do a good simulation of the results.

This is easier when not heads up. If a couple of players are ahead of you on 4th street, the fold is more obvious. Heads up allows for much more bluffing and taking a reasonable chance after a poor 4th street (in my opinion).

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this heavily depends on how bad you catch vs how good they catch. It also depends on how likely you are to "catch up" to them on 5th street and still be drawing worse than they are. While you may be a 2.3:1 or whatever dog, the betting isn't going to magically end on 4th street, even worse, it doubles. I think there are probably some spots where you could profitably take one off on 4th after only a completion on third, but they are probably obvious ones like starting with 3 wheel cards and being up against 87, but even then you are not in good shape:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2c Kd 3h 169122 33.82 330853 66.17 25 0.01 0.338
6s 5c 7d 8h 330853 66.17 169122 33.82 25 0.01 0.662

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have A23 in the hole, I would definitely see 5th street here. Knowing this, if I had the opportunity I would have reraised on 3rd to make the 4th street peel even more correct.

But if I raised 1st in with A23 and got called by a 7, I would definitely call if I caught a K and he caught a 8.

Its true the bets double on 5th, but you could easily have the best of it on the next card. Plus you will most likely have position the rest of the way.

Lets say you catch an 8 and he catches a ten:

Razz (7-card Stud A-5 Low): 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 8c 3c 2c 289705 57.94 210295 42.06 0 0.00 0.579
Ts 8s 7s 6s 5s 210295 42.06 289705 57.94 0 0.00 0.421

You now have the best of it when the bet doubles.

[bobman0330]

Another problem no one has touched on is the strength of your relative boards. You lose bluffing equity on future rounds because you have a giant meatball sitting there between your third and fifth cards.

I think the pot odds/implied odds should be sufficient to make this a bad call though. You're only seeing one card, and very frequently you'll end up calling more bets when you both catch good. Sklansky's not wrong about this. Unless it's a very large ante, fold in this spot. If it's a medium ante where you don't know what to do, then possibly reraise more liberally on 3rd.