($27) AQ 4 handed, possible fold

[hess]

The short stack is going to be in the big blind next hand. If I fold I estimate (theoretically) I have at least a 70% chance of cashing. My hand, AQ, is only a 64% favorite against a random hand. I am guaranteed at least one call since the big blind will be getting 2.5:1 pot odds to make a call that won't hurt his stack. Is risking bubbling worth the extra chips that could lead to a 1st or 2nd place finish?




PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t600 with t50 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t1320)
Hero (t1727)
SB (t5278)
BB (t5175)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

[Jay Riall]

I push this. You still have some FE and CO is far from garuanteed to bust before you.

[Jay Riall]

Looking at SNGPT this is a +1.0% push with both the blinds calling 100%. And I thought it would be close.

[SonnyJay]

I think this is still a push. I think you've still got some fold equity.

In addition, you aren't necessarily going to fold your way into the money. If the short stack had, say, t100, then I'm folding.

-SonnyJay

[icemanjmw]

I'm pushing this and hoping whatever crap the BB calls with is like A7 or QJ so he doesn't have two live cards. I know Lederer says tight is right on the bubble but this is almost too good an oppurtunity you can't pass it up.
Plus you have no way of knowing that the shorty is going to move in next hand, he could easily fold both his BB and SB and survive another orbit. If he folds his way down to 300 and you look down at KK then what? Do you fold that knowing he's going to be out before you?

[nuggetz87]

easy push. and BTW, the BB will not call you with 100% even with those odds. also consider that AQ is really good vs. the range he would call you with because it has other aces and queens dominated (besides AK).

[hess]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing this and hoping whatever crap the BB calls with is like A7 or QJ so he doesn't have two live cards. I know Lederer says tight is right on the bubble but this is almost too good an oppurtunity you can't pass it up.
Plus you have no way of knowing that the shorty is going to move in next hand, he could easily fold both his BB and SB and survive another orbit. If he folds his way down to 300 and you look down at KK then what? Do you fold that knowing he's going to be out before you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold KK if it is the correct mathematical laydown. Your example seems too extreme. Besides, I will usually outlast the short stack in the folding game.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
easy push. and BTW, the BB will not call you with 100% even with those odds. also consider that AQ is really good vs. the range he would call you with because it has other aces and queens dominated (besides AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

I put 100% to illustrate how clear of a push it is. We can push a lot looser than AQ in this spot according to SNGPT which suprises me.

[icemanjmw]

"I would fold KK if it is the correct mathematical laydown. Your example seems too extreme. Besides, I will usually outlast the short stack in the folding game. "

I hope you're looking for a chance to win still, otherwise I'd just click away mode and get a bite to eat.

Also, you seem to think you're a lock for the money. If the shorty manages to pick up a hand, or gets lucky his last hand (which is probably 30% to happen assuming noone picks up a monster that hand) then you're the short stack.

[hess]

I don't care about winning, I care about maximizing my EV.