$200 PLO8, Slow Down Or Not To Slow Down...

[Trumbull]

Played against this opponent before and he will chase and chase and chase with non-premeium hands...Should I have slowed down on the turn? I figured my draw was so strong I was gonna try to punish him for playing garbage...

http://www.pokerhand.org/?413130

[jai]

If your opponent does not have a flush draw, set, two pair involving a 3, or A2, you have 15 scoop outs and 8 lo outs. Let's assume on average you have 12 scoop outs and 8 low outs. Let's also assume you must hit to win and your opponent calls always. So, when you push 12/44 times you win 380 (+103), 8/44 you win 190 (+35), 24/44 you lose 121 (-66). So, on average you are risking 121 to win 72. Obviously not a good bet. Ok, but what if your opponent folds sometimes? Well, we can calculate he must fold about 36% of the time to make this a break even bet (50/136)--again an unlikely proposition.

Of course, you can't do a detailed analysis like this at the table, but this is what I would think: This opponent chases light, there are low/str8/flush draws on the board, and I have no hand to showdown if I miss. But, I have position, I think I should use it for the free card here and still possibly get his stack if I hit.

Also, you'll probably get more responses if you post the hand within the text of the post.

[Trumbull]

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with :4s :ac :2s :3c
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, [color=#cc0000]Hero raises to $11</font>, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: :3d :td :5s ($47, 4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, [color=#cc0000]Hero bets $44.65</font>, CO folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: :qh ($136.3, 2 players)
UTG checks, [color=#cc0000]Hero bets $133.3</font>, [color=#cc0000]UTG calls all-in $121.2</font>.
Uncalled bets: $12.1 returned to Hero.

River: :qd ($378.7, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $378.7)


Results:
Final pot: $378.7

[jai]

Ok, I suck at EV. Disregard the last half of statement.

Your EV is 12/44*380+8/44*190-24/44*121=71

That stuff about betting 121 to win 71 is just wrong, you are clearly EV+ and should push.

[Trumbull]

I ran it on twodimes and I was a 1.5:1 dog...I really thought about slowing down and taking a free card, but on that board I just thought that I was in too strong of a position not to semi-bluff at it even though I probably wasnt going to win an all in showdown if not improved...

The other guys comment at the end of the hand was priceless, "It was only $120 more to call and I was a favorite on the turn.." That made me laugh...

[jai]

Wow, it has been a long time since I have busted out the EV calcs, because I am just way wrong today.

The correct equation, given my assumptions, is 12/44 *260 + 8/44 * 68 - 24/44*121=17

Given that your opponent had diamonds and some of your other outs, it's probably -EV to push here. In general, it seems really close and what I would do would depend on other things, like how much variance I want, what my fold equity is, and how likely I am to be paid off if I hit on the river.

[Trumbull]

I'm fairly tight so I don't usually get involved in many big pots and that exact thought of variance entered my mind...I do want it with that type of hand...I just think that the villian overplayed his hand a lot...Yeah he did have a flush draw, but still A8 for low?? I thought I might have some fold equity but it's obvious by my opponent's comment that he doesn't give a crap and is just willing to call it all off...

And also getting paid off on the river entered into my mind as well...I don't think I do if I hit my wheel...