Flop 2 pair, ugly turn, 10/20NL

okayplayer · #1 07-14-2006, 06:30 PM

Villain seems to be decent TAG (17/9/4%). Full ring 10/20NL, eff. stack $2040.

2 limpers and I limp A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in HJ and Villain limps CO.

Flop ($107): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet $100, Villain calls, rest fold.

Turn ($307): J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet $250 and Villain makes it $650, I...

AceCR9 · #2 07-14-2006, 06:35 PM

Fold

lapoker17 · #3 07-14-2006, 06:37 PM

are these games so nitty that dude is limping AJ there pre? and for that matter, why didn't you jack it w AT there pre? in short, i don't think this turn is that ugly. KQss, eh, whatever, i stick it in there. i think he can have JT or KJss/J9ss enough that this is right.

add my normal disclaimer that i don't pay attention to the pt stats as i don't know how loose or tight a 17/9 is. if that means rock then i may ammend my statement.

9cao · #4 07-14-2006, 06:50 PM

Unless there is some history or something else not mentioned this is an easy fold. I think you played hand perfect up to that point too.

anacrime · #5 07-15-2006, 03:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Unless there is some history or something else not mentioned this is an easy fold. I think you played hand perfect up to that point too.

[/ QUOTE ]You put villain on exactly AJ or 333? IMO those are the only two hands we're afraid of here and the action doesn't seem to cleary define that we're up against one of these. I don't think a decent TAG limps with AJo and I think he would raise AJs. I guess it's kinda hard to tell with just stats..

Phresh · #6 07-15-2006, 03:52 AM

Right, but does a decent TAG really raise here with less than AT,though?

anacrime · #7 07-15-2006, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but does a decent TAG really raise here with less than AT,though?

[/ QUOTE ]You're probably right since he probably folds JT on the flop. It just seems all of the hands that have us beat (KQspades, AJs, TT, 33) should have either raised PF or raised the flop. Maybe decent TAGs limp AJo [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

okayplayer · #8 07-15-2006, 05:34 AM

As far as LA's post, I would say that my PF actions are very typical with a solid TAG, and I would also say that AJ is very much in Villain's limping range (esp. after 3 limpers); I highly doubt he is raising AJs with 3 limpers.

In regards to others' comments...
I don't just put Villain on 333 or AJ, in fact, I highly doubt 333 is a possibilty (I almost discount it), but I do think that AJ is in his range, as well as KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 89 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], QJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and possibly JT, and maybe even some other flush draw. But it's a matter of what are the possibilities of these hands and what are the likelihood of him raising each one of these hands on the turn are. I would like to hear some more input/feedback before I post results.

BLdSWtTRs · #9 07-15-2006, 05:46 AM

Looks like you only beat JT. This is a tough spot. If you havent been too out of line I dont think he is raising you w/o at least AJ.

creedofhubris · #10 07-15-2006, 06:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As far as LA's post, I would say that my PF actions are very typical with a solid TAG, and I would also say that AJ is very much in Villain's limping range (esp. after 3 limpers); I highly doubt he is raising AJs with 3 limpers.

In regards to others' comments...
I don't just put Villain on 333 or AJ, in fact, I highly doubt 333 is a possibilty (I almost discount it), but I do think that AJ is in his range, as well as KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 89 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], QJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and possibly JT, and maybe even some other flush draw. But it's a matter of what are the possibilities of these hands and what are the likelihood of him raising each one of these hands on the turn are. I would like to hear some more input/feedback before I post results.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you have him beat, it's because he's on a combo flush draw. I feel like he's on a flush hand that picked up outs, that's most consistent with his play.

I really think most TAGs raise AJ and KQs preflop in that position, and I would think he'd often be raising the flop with those hands as well.

Hmm. I was going to say that you can drop if you call and a spade hits the river. If you push turn he's probably still got a slightly profitable call if he's on a combo draw and a no-brainer call with AJ, KQ, or 333.

Also depends if he will fire the allin river bullet if he misses a draw.

If he's going to do that, then you can get a better overlay on your money by picking off a bluff rather than pushing, so the superior play is to call his turn raise and check any river to induce a bluff, calling the allin bet on a blank.

If he's not a bluffer, then you max your EV by pushing now.

My rough calcs say that if you think you're any more than 50% likely to be ahead right now then you should continue on with the hand, assuming you're going to need to put the rest in.

Just in terms of combinatorics, six combos of AJ, and we'll call it six combos of spades, including some frisky ones.

Also JT (12), A3 (6), KQ not of spades (15), 33 (6).

Close to 50/50 in terms of hands you beat and hands you don't.

Depends on your conditional weighting of how he would play each of those hands preflop, on the flop, and on the turn.

Tough spot.