Why am I so pissy (VERY long - probably whiny)

[kiemo]

**************THIS IS LONG _ BEWARE***************8

Lately as I know Tyler has noticed most of posts have centered around how damn much I am either the unluckiest SOB in the world or I am a terrible poker player. Well I am going to use this post to maybe show/explain why and vent (or whine if you prefer) a little. This post was planned in early May, but I have held off posting it until now, becuase it is pretty much whining as nothing that has happened to me is anyway special or unqiue and while I am whining about bad luck, over all my online career has been very good. So this post is mostly just a vent.

A bit of background. I am very part time player, I play maybe 3k-3.5k hands a month and I pretty much only play on a site if I have a bonus to clear. Also my sessions are usually keep to about an hour in length, playing much longer is typically too tiring for me and I get bored. Given this knowledge my primary game is 1/2 full as that clears the raked hands the fastest. I know 6max clears faster but up to this point my experiences at 6 max have been dreadful, another post entirely. I started playing poker about 2.5 years ago and started at .05/.10. Played 10k at 8bb/100 and decided it was time to move up and start on bonuses, so I moved onto the .5/1 game and played almost 30k hands at 4.5bb/100. During this time I also did alot of casino whoring as it was far easier then and this skyrocketed my bankroll.

However I am very fiscially conservative and dont really like to risk my money, which explains why I was sitting on a 5000bb bankroll when I finally decided to move up to 1/2. I pumped out 10k hands at 1/2 at winrate of 2.7. THEN IT HIT. THE DOWNSWING! Over the course of a months play I lost 150 BB!!!! OMG! Being my first big downswing, as probably everyone is after their first, I was devastated. In addition, I had two losing months in row, which was even worse as up to that point (about 20 months) I had a grand total of one losing month and now here I am with 2 months in a row of losing. You can imagine my distraught. Well I kept playing and went up and down until I busted out of the slump, which took about 10k hands (3 months of play) and I knew nothing like that would ever happen again.

Now before the downswing I was ready to make the leap into some 6max or 2/4 play. I was bankrolled about 3000bb for 2/4 so I wasnt too worried about ever busting, but again I am tight with money, once I got it I dont like giving it up, so when the downswing hit I wouldnt even try 2/4 until I got out of it.

Another concern of mine was my winrate at 1/2. At this point it had slipped below 1.5 and I noticed that I had won more money at .5/1 then at 1/2 through almost the same number of hands. My winrate at .5/1 was 3x that of 1/2 and I was paying alot less rake. Now of course my winrate at .5/1 was most likely a good run, coupled with very loose tables back then (no 6max), and alot of weak tight pay that got paid off in kind by all the loose fishies on the tables. The play on the 1/2 tables was considerably better and my weak tight game was winning, it just wasnt winning as good for obvious reasons. A few posts on these boards showed I was still playing a pretty weak-tight game, preflop especially and I was passing up lots of +EV hands (VPIP of 14%). In addition I have been accused several times (Bozlax several times) of having a serious case of MUBS, which I dont deny but also dont think is entirely unfounded.

Even with all that, when I got out of the downswing. I played about 5k more hands at 1/2 just to calm my nerves and make sure I was playing decent. Then I took a stab at 2/4 and ran hot through my first 2k hands I won at 4.8 and I thought I was the man. As many have said 2/4 was like .5/1 all over again. Bad players cold calling preflop with junk, going to the river with bottom pair, it was amazing. I was excited to possibly leave 1/2 behind me for good and make the move to 2/4 as bankroll was not an issue. Finally I could start working off the 1.2k in bonii I had at Stars (clearing at 1/2 was painful). I knew I would still be playing some 1/2 as the raked hands at 2/4 werent as easy to come by as 1/2, so some time limit bonuses, like Party, I would still have to mix in some 1/2 in order to clear.

Then IT hit again. March came and results are below.

Prior to March 06 at 1/2



Since March 06 at 1/2



1/2 overall


2/4 All - you can guess where March is.



Now it should be obvious where my frustrations are coming in. 16k (or almost 5 months for me) of getting my butt kicked. Now I read BBV and know that this is probably nothing, hell I have seen way worse graphs from guys that are better players then me, however most of the guys are playing 6 max, where the swings are greater and higher levels where the players are a little better. I rarely see anybody post about extended losing streaks at 1/2, so I get even frustrated becuase I think it has to be me.

Also if you look at my last 16k hands I have almost no extended winning streaks and almost all of my small winning streaks are quickly followed by larger losing streaks. My table tonight was another great example. I start of the night up 15bb after hitting a couple of nice hands against a couple of big fish, but I end the night down 20BB, when I make second best after second best and dont win a hand in 60 hands against said fish. Party especially is bad for me (.64bb/100 over 20k), but unfortunately is where most of the bonuses are, so I keep coming back. My wife honestly believes they have doom switched me and sometimes I believe she is not far off as I take bad beat after bad beat there (Notice the the bad run at the end of my graph - yeah guess which site thats at)

I started to actually count my sets, oesd, and flush draws and then most certainly were way below expectations. Flush esespecially. At one point when I gave up counting I was 6 for 60 in hitting my four card flush draws (and 3 of those were one card checked to river BB special flushes, where I wound up with like a 6 high flush).

Last year I made a bit over $5k in poker ($2k in winnings, $3k in bonus, I dont get rakeback) and was very happy with the results as that was my target. This year I targeted the same number, which I though would be easier to hit given my plan to move to 2/4, but so far this year I have gotten $1700 in bonuses and on the year I am only up about $1k. So my chances of hitting my goal for the year are almost nill.

To make matters worse, even my casino whoring is being hit by this downswing. I have gotten $1300 in bonuses this year and I have managed only to clear $170 of that flat betting $5 on blackjack. EV for these is about $1100, which means my results are about in the one billionth chance of happening. Its almost as if my IP address is doom switched!

Now after withdrawing some of the bankroll to pay for a new kitchen I am still sitting on a 5000bb bankroll for 1/2 and I am actually still making money (albiet very little) on the bonuses that I clear. But I am not happy playing losing poker and I find myself lately either dreading playing or being pissed off at the end of another terrible session. Just the other night (Friday) I couldnt sleep, in part becuase of my results that night.

I know one of my big problems is playing against tight players, especially aggro ones (ie 2+2er). Given my penchance for MUBS and weak preflop play, these players run over me. However I do seem to get terribly unlucky against them also, but that may be selective memory. Also I have no table or player selection criteria. Given my schedule for playing and how I like to keep sessions short, I just try to get on the table as fast as I can and I dont like switching around to much becuase if I am only playing an hour, I dont want to sit on a waiting list for 20 minutes. This means alot of nights I start at a good table but it winds up being full of semi-bot TAGS halfway through the session, but I stick around anyways.

Another one of problems is I am probably a little too tight preflop. I think the reasoning being is I will throw away mid-low pocket pairs and Ax suited from early positions on almost every table, in addition I probably throw away alot of marginal +EV hands when there isnt much action (such as I will throw away 97s on the button if there is only one limper).

Another leak is probably my lack of comfortability with defending my blinds or 3-betting without a strong hand. Example - folded to a tight player on button who raises. Most likely a steal and I have a semi-decent hand like KQo or A8s. Do I call or 3-bet..... Usually I call and c/f the flop UI.

A couple 10k hands at 6max would probably be a great help to me, but once again I find myself not wanting to try that until I get myself out of the current downswing I am in. I have discovered already though that I do get wore out much faster playing 6 max. I find myself wanting to quit after about a half hour a play. Playing only single table half an hour a night doesnt clear bonuses.

Tyler already suggested I take some time off, and while I tried that already, maybe I need some more time off.

I dont know what I expect from this post, as I stated earlier,its probably mostly just to get some junk off my chest, as I no one here is going to have the magic answer, or any answer besides raise preflop and flop better hands. I am very concerned about my winrate at 1/2, which is hovering barely above 1.0bb/100. Some will say any winrate over 0 is good, but at this level I think that is just people being nice. I dont know what an average win rate is for 1/2 full games, but I would think a decent player should be able to make 2-2.5bb/100.

Lastly, I rally alot on these boards about how I dont think AJo is that good of a hand. Heres my results with it and you can see why I think this.


tl,dr - Stuff about me. Probably not worth your time. Just look at my results with AJ and tell me I need to raise more preflop with it.

[MrWookie]

I have some suggestions for you.

1. Have you read Ed Miller's latest magazine article? Do it.

2. You ever read my "On Downswings" post?

3. I think you should play some 2+2ers HU for fun. Learn to play HU poker. This will do a lot of good things for you. Mostly, it'll be fun, a change of pace playing with people you like for nano or play money stakes that you can enjoy. Then, you'll learn a lot. Discuss hands w/ your opponent. You'll start to more appreciate the value of A high and 2nd pair. You'll look for better spots to bluff. You'll start to break out of robot poker. This is excatly what you need to help your game.

4. Barring that, play at more 2+2 tables. Work on the same concepts. Also, 2+2 tables are fun, and you need that, too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[VickreyAuction]

Well, that sucks. Only thing I can say is: if you're getting unlucky, don't worry about it. If I get beat by a rivered 4 outer and don't spew on the river, I don't mind that much since I'm positive that I made a bunch of Sklansky bucks, and that Sklansky bucks will equal actual money made in the long run. If you're the one getting outplayed, then you should consider moving down or coming up for a solid plan to beat TAGs and LAGs.

[milesdyson]

like you said, your preflop game is very tight and you dont showdown much for the hands you do play. also you mentioned your blind defense. yes, this is also a huge issue given your numbers.

what to say? get over your fears about preflop play. read hands in the shorthanded forum. see what other people are doing in marginal preflop situations. you'll find a ton of stuff that you're not doing that other players are doing. the resources are all right here... you just have to apply it at the game.

[00Snitch]

hey, while we are crying in this thread. can someone tell me if they think im running bad or playing [censored].

yes small sample size etc...

[johno]

Maybe I'm out of line - lot less experience than you but it would seem to me that you

a) are keen to play more marginal hands
b) want to try and be more aggressive
c) want to enjoy playing poker

Assuming winning money isn't the be all and end all, then wouldn't using some of your bankroll to play more adventurously at say 0.25/0.5 be a good idea? If it works out then you could try some of the things you learn at higher levels. Maybe they won't work, but I bet you'd have fun trying! I love getting flamed by some robot TAG when I show a marginal hand that's just won a big pot - and watch them go on tilt afterwards.


(P.S. snitch - that's what happens when you play on tables of bonus-hunting 2+2ers at Hollywood!)

[00Snitch]

i know! seriously?!?!

im currently playing at two 16 and 18 vpip tables. will you all please [censored] off! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[HouseCalls]

Kiemo -

Two observations:

First, when I look at your combined 1/2 graph (pre and post March) it doesn't look that bad overall. That's not too say its not painful; its just to point out that it is in the realm of variance.

Second, the win rate of 1 BB/100 may not be that bad for what you are doing. If you are chasing bonuses (especially at Party) then you are inevitably moving in a pack of TAGs and your results will reflect that. Add to that a little bit of bad luck (like 10% of flush draws hitting over a prolonged period) and its not hard or your win rate to drop into red numbers for a while. In addition as you move up the bonuses don't protect you as much. I remember grinding bonuses as low as .25/.50 when I first started doing this. It took forever, but you had to drop more than 200 BB over that time to not make money and that was almost impossible. I recently made the switch to 1/2 myself and while the bonus does clear faster it has impressed me how quickly you can lose the bonus and more if you run bad while chasing it.

OK that's enough pontificating so to make up for your having to read that drivel I'll give you two things that have helped me during the ineviatble downswings.

The first is a freebie called the lawschool dropouts poker blog. I don't have the link but if you put that in Google. Its written by a 2+2er who plays high stakes but (especially early in the blog) has a lot of good discussion about downswings and moving up etc. Its an entertaining read and helped me realize that I'm not the only one going through this stuff.

The second isn't s freebie but may well be worth the price. There are a series of essays in "Inside the Poker Mind" that talk about the "Professional Attitude." The idea is to focus more on decisions and less on results which is certainly not new but for some reason I was better able to actually do that after reading the book.

Well that's my free advice... worth every penny.

Good Luck - House

[KingOtter]

One thing that I'm kind of irrational and semi-paranoid about is that I'm too patterned in my play. When I do xxx, this means yyy, everytime, yada yada. With all the HUDs available to everyone, and Poker-Edge datamining type sites it wouldn't surprise me to have a couple people at my tables have some kind of read-out about my patterns and behavior, and play accordingly.

Your time at 2/4 might be (and it's a big might) at least partially attributed to people at that level learning how you play and adjusting. Your big hands aren't getting paid, and you get lots of action when you're second best.

KO

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that I'm kind of irrational and semi-paranoid about is that I'm too patterned in my play. When I do xxx, this means yyy, everytime, yada yada. With all the HUDs available to everyone, and Poker-Edge datamining type sites it wouldn't surprise me to have a couple people at my tables have some kind of read-out about my patterns and behavior, and play accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to bypass this thread, because I hate "I run bad" threads...then I came across this. KO, do a quick check in your PT database, and I'll bet you don't have more than 1K of hands on any given player, since PP stopped giving you HHs for observed hands. Micro players a) simply are not good enough and b) do not spend enough time at the table with you to be able to pattern you. Yes, there are things you do that mean something, but they're the same things that everybody do that mean the same thing, and the reason you do them is because that's the best way to play the game (c/r'ing the flop to protect your hand, etc). If you notice a) somebody stalking you, and b) winning, then you can worry ABOUT THAT SPECIFIC PLAYER.

Similarly, Kiemo, the "Doom Switch" is crap. Just get over it. POKER SITES DO NOT CARE WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES. THEY JUST DON'T.

So, I merely skimmed your unbelievably long post (I particularly couldn't believe there was almost as much text after the graphs as there was before them), and I do have an observation. Two, actually:

One, you only play 3K hands/month, and you're still, overall, a winning player. So, you're just not going to have the same results as someone that plays 10-20K hands/month, and if you're winning any money at all you're doing fine (and, no, I'm not being nice...perish the thought).

Second, you're a recreational player. Stop worrying about how much you're winning. In other words, fish or cut bait: either work harder to improve (which is going to mean playing a lot more hands, which your apparent adult-onset ADD might not allow), or accept the fact that you aren't a professional poker player and just enjoy playing (like me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]).

One last piece of advice, to increase your enjoyment of the game learn a new game. You're burned out on HE, buy a book and try Omaha, or Stud, or Razz; don't just say, "Ok, I'll go play fishmax or NL." Play a game with a completely different structure. (I've been playing Omaha/8 for the past couple of months, and it's a great change of pace.)