probability of sets

camerondiggs · #1 06-29-2006, 10:59 PM

I just flopped sets in consecutive hands. Wondering if anyone could give the oddsof that or should i be able to figure this out myself

Silent A · #2 06-30-2006, 03:37 AM

Is this Hold 'Em? And by a "set" do you mean a pocket pair hit the flop?

If so, odds of being dealt a PP = 1/17 and the odds of flopping a set with a PP is 1/8

Odds that you'll flop a set on any given hand = 1/17/8 = 1/136

Odds that you'll flop a set on each of the next 2 hands = 1/136/136 = 1/18,500

Red_Diamond · #3 07-01-2006, 09:10 AM

Actualy, odds of flopping a set is 8.3-to-1, not 1/8.

AaronBrown · #4 07-01-2006, 03:42 PM

To be irritatingly precise, if you hold a pocket pair, out of 1,225 possible flops, you will get a set only in 132, a set that is also a full house in 9 and quads in 3.

That's 1/8.5 or 7.5 to 1 of having at least three of your pocket pair after the flop; 1/9.3 or 8.3 to 1 of having a set that is not part of a full house or quads.

If we take the most inclusive definition of a set, so we include hands where you have a three of your pocket pair plus a board pair and also quads, you'll get one of these 1 hand in 145 if you see every flop if you are dealt a pair. If you only played two poker hands and you got a set twice, the probability would be about 1 in 21,000. But if you play a lot of poker, it will happen many times in your life.