10/20 - big draw, take free card?

pocketjesuits · #1 06-27-2006, 06:30 PM

Main villain is relatively weak-tight for this game, 14/6. My image isn't insanely aggro to the point where he would expect me to bet if checked to.

On the flop, I sometimes call, sometimes raise the original raiser. If the original raiser had called the flop raise, my plan was to push when it came back to me. With the original raiser folded, I didn't want to get it all-in against a set and I was getting good odds, so I decided to call to see a turn, aware that he'd likely make the river too expensive.

His turn check is really strange to me. So should I check behind here for a free river, or try to take in on the turn with outs if necessary?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($2144)
Hero ($5483)
MP2 ($2822.50)
CO ($2485)
Button ($2864)
SB ($2543)
BB ($2263)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $80, Hero calls $80, 3 folds, SB calls $70, 1 fold.

Flop: ($260) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $200, Hero calls $200, SB raises to $560, UTG folds, Hero calls $360.

Turn: ($1580) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?,

9cao · #2 06-27-2006, 06:42 PM

For sure. That weak CR on the flop is usually not a sign of weakness.

pocketjesuits · #3 06-27-2006, 06:49 PM

yeah the weak cr isn't a sign of weakness, but what about the check on the turn? does he really check a set here on this board against my hand which looks completely like a draw?

Joker757 · #4 06-27-2006, 07:00 PM

Defiently take the free card. Why semi bluff here if he has a set and get reraised out of the pot. His reraise out of position against the UTG raiser with three people in the pot doesnt indicate weakness unless he is a complete IDIOT!!

You have to reasonably sure that you have 15 outs to the nut hand unless he has the AsXs not likely but dont know your opponent. Even then you still have 8 outs slight dog why risk being pushed out when you might be able to win a big pot on the river.

Hope this helped.

Good luck!

9cao · #5 06-27-2006, 07:02 PM

I see what you are saying but I think this is exactly what is going through a weak-tight players head when he checks here. Your other option is the overbet the pot hoping he would fold hands like AJ, 78 or combo draws here but I still think you might get looked up by a big range if not CR all-in.

O_Witty · #6 06-27-2006, 07:04 PM

unless he hopes u hit Q or is counting on the fact that you will play your draw agg since you bet out and called a raise. considering ur original lead bet isn't it possible he is hoping you infact while fire again. consider the fact that he raised into 2 other ppl where 1 bet and the other called.

flawless_victory · #7 06-27-2006, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Defiently take the free card. Why semi bluff here if he has a set and get reraised out of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
not gonna happen that way...
[ QUOTE ]
His reraise out of position against the UTG raiser with three people in the pot doesnt indicate weakness unless he is a complete IDIOT!!

[/ QUOTE ]
wrong.

pocketjesuits · #8 06-27-2006, 07:08 PM

So flawless, are you betting out here?

fslexcduck · #9 06-27-2006, 07:17 PM

this is obviously either a push, which is slightly more than pot, or a check behind. there is no reason to bet any other amount. but given the way this hand played out (i'd probably have raised the first time it got to me) i'd probably push. people are checking so so rarely on that board with only a psb left with a huge hand that i think you have a huge amount of FE. and if he calls, well, river an out.

Karak567 · #10 06-27-2006, 07:17 PM

anyone raise the original flop bet?