PP 5/10: Flopped nut flush draw w/ 3 opponents

[pshabi]

Preflop raiser is 18.6/14.0/3.5/29.2 over 586 hands. To me, that says he plays fit or fold and doesn't know what a call button is.

I think the flop lead may be marginal. Given the action, I think the turn lead is gold.

Do you agree w/

1) My interpretation of the raiser's stats?
2) My flop lead?
3) My turn lead?


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (5.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

[___]

Your awkward position makes me think checking and re-evaluating is best. I'd probably call, but not always.

I don't like the bet because the PFR often has a better hand than you and the pot is large enough that he should call with overcards. MP may get scared of being trapped and fold, and if CO raises he could shut out button. This is not an unlikely sequence of events, and you're putting yourself at great risk of "losing customers" by betting out.

I know that can be a fallcious concept, but if you fold out two unpaired hands and CO is ahead of you, he will pick up much more of the equity from the two players than leave than you do. You'd like to see this flop go 4 ways for multiple bets, but your position means you aren't able to assure this. If it were checked to CO and he bet and button raised then I might like a 3-bet, but betting out wins you the least and loses you the most.

As played I don't mind the turn bet, but you risk getting popped by an 8 that was scared of your flop donk. This fear is common from weak players who think that you must have a monster to donk into the PFR. I don't think the lead is "gold" as you say, but I think it's a reasonable hope.

I think your interpretation of the PFR's stats is reasonable. You should watch for chances to get headsup with him and push him off hands if you have a good table image.

[Caddy_4_Life]

On the flop I lean towards checking with 3 opponents. I'm probably betting with 2. The problem is when you bet your going to very very rarely take down the pot here. It is a fairly co-ordinated board for limping hands and overcards have the odds to carry on. After your flop bet you make the turn much more difficult to play as now an eight can come overtop of you but given the way you played it I think I would do a continuation bet on that second eight. It isn't the worse turn card that can come out as now big Ax hands, other overcards not picking up [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s are in fact folding and sometimes weak 3x and 7x hands.

To summarize, my biggest qualm with the hand in general is with 3 opponents, one of which is a pre-flop raiser, and a fairly co-ordinated board, we reduce our implied odds significantly with a flop bet.

-Caddy

[pshabi]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I lean towards checking with 3 opponents. I'm probably betting with 2. The problem is when you bet your going to very very rarely take down the pot here. It is a fairly co-ordinated board for limping hands and overcards have the odds to carry on. After your flop bet you make the turn much more difficult to play as now an eight can come overtop of you but given the way you played it I think I would do a continuation bet on that second eight. It isn't the worse turn card that can come out as now big Ax hands, other overcards not picking up [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s are in fact folding and sometimes weak 3x and 7x hands.

To summarize, my biggest qualm with the hand in general is with 3 opponents, one of which is a pre-flop raiser, and a fairly co-ordinated board, we reduce our implied odds significantly with a flop bet.

-Caddy

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought I had a really good chance to trap the player between myself and the raiser. Giving him credit for "not wanting to get trapped" would be giving him too much credit.

[Caddy_4_Life]

Do we have a read on MP. Does he think that much? I agree that he probably doesn't know he's getting trapped. So let's say you bet, he calls, pfr raises, other donkey folds, it comes back to you. I see a c/r pointless being OOP, not being able to fold an ace, and only getting 2:1 on this street.

A better result could have been you check, MP checks, pfr bets, other donkey calls, you call, MP calls. This is ideal and possible because no one is being faced with 2-cold.

Lets change our read on MP a bit. Lets make things worse and say MP is in fact a thinker. They are out there! You bet, MP folds his JT or QJ or whatever fearing a raise behind him. That result is giving you less EV than the c/c.

-Caddy

[Redd]

1) More or less; FWIW, I don't think his WTSD will have converged to a useful number after 500 hands.

2) Given the special circumstances (your read of the pfr), I can see how a lead would be superior to try to clean up your A outs. It probably won't cost much due to the overlay your draw affords you. FWIW, I'd guess lead into a pfr less than 1% of the time.

3) Nope. I think you won't fold both these guys enough to justify it. I suspect you're paying 2BB for the river card more often than you're folding them both. I'd just check-call. FWIW, I like cookies.

[Disconnected]

I agree with your interpretation of villain's stats. Given that, I don't think that I want to lead into him on a draw, since he's only going to raise hands that beat us (which would be OK if we knew the other 2 would stick around).

I would check the flop, but if MP checks and the pfr bets, I would probably c/r. If button is in there, we have an equity advantage with our draw if MP calls, and we also build some folding equity for the turn, if we choose to lead out. If we could get any better ace to fold, that would be golden.

Given the way the hand played, I think leading the turn is correct. You could possibly take it down there, if both other guys peeled with overcards. It's true you might get raised, but there's a pretty good chance that anyone with an eight would have raised the flop, so it's not likely to have helped them.

What's the river plan if called on the turn and the river blanks?

[Disconnected]

[ QUOTE ]
Your awkward position makes me think checking and re-evaluating is best. I'd probably call, but not always.

I don't like the bet because the PFR often has a better hand than you and the pot is large enough that he should call with overcards. MP may get scared of being trapped and fold, and if CO raises he could shut out button. This is not an unlikely sequence of events, and you're putting yourself at great risk of "losing customers" by betting out.

I know that can be a fallcious concept, but if you fold out two unpaired hands and CO is ahead of you, he will pick up much more of the equity from the two players than leave than you do. You'd like to see this flop go 4 ways for multiple bets, but your position means you aren't able to assure this. If it were checked to CO and he bet and button raised then I might like a 3-bet, but betting out wins you the least and loses you the most.


[/ QUOTE ]

How often does CO have a better hand? If you are aggressive with your draw, how many of those better hands of his are making it to showdown? I think if you fold out 2 unpaired hands (especially if they are Ax hands), that is great. Yes, the equity goes to CO if he's ahead of you, but his pfr range is wide enough that he's not ahead of you a majority of the time, and a lot of the time he is, he will give it up on the turn (based on the read).

I'm not advocating the flop lead, but when you say you would check and probably call, do you mean that you'd consider folding if it came back to you for one bet? Or that you would probably call, but might raise?

[27offsooot]

I like flop and turn. Turn especially. MP protects most pairs on this ragged flop, right, so he could have crap A high or another draw, betting the turn again could very well get PFR to fold and win u the pot UI. I don't think u will get raised on the turn either b/c PFR prob always raises a pair on the flop and MP prob doesn't have an 8.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Giving him credit for "not wanting to get trapped" would be giving him too much credit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Completely agree. The turn is also one of the few non-heart cards I would lead, good bet.