2-7 Triple Draw Math Question

[fiveaces17]

I'm not great at math, but I love knowing percentages. I know a made Jack is a favorite over any draw heads up with one opponent and that a made 9 in a three person pot is a favorite if your opponents are still drawing are favorites (both with 1 draw remaining), thanks Super System. Just knowing this has made me a good deal of money playing the game. Anyway, there's another situation that I find myself in a lot playing deuce-seven. The one I'm most curious about is: With TWO draws remaining, what made hand is a favorite over a single opponent drawing TWO? From experience it seems like 10's or better tend to hold in this spot...anyone know the math here? I know a lot depends on the situation, what cards are already out, etc, etc, but I'm just looking for an answer in a general sense. And if anyone knows any other useful percentages in deuce-seven triple draw, share!!

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] fiveaces17

[MarkGritter]

A T is a decent favorite to win, while a J might be. It depends to some extent whether your opponent is willing to keep a 9 or higher.

Example situation: You hold T8532, your opponent holds KQ732. If your opponent discards a 9 he will make T-high just 39% of the time.

If you hold J8532 and he keeps an 9 he will make J-high or better 49% of the time.

Both these numbers, however, assume two draws, while some of the time your opponent will get two bricks on the second draw and fold the third round.

[fiveaces17]

Thanks for the reply, it's very helpful. Do you do the math yourself or do you have a resource for it? Anyone know if there are any triple draw calculators on the web?

[MarkGritter]

I have a tool which I wrote myself to show the results of multi-round draws. (I don't plan on releasing it as it is somewhat clunky and has a few known bugs which I can work around.) The math is sort of tedious to work through, but it is feasible to do by hand.

I am working (very slowly) on a tool which will provide showdown equity for situations in which there are 2 or more players drawing. The problem is that there are drawing decisions to be made which are not obvious, so it's not possible to do a pure "hot and cold" simulation like you can in a flop or stud game. You either have to provide a simulated model of drawing decisions or else solve for the "perfect information" game, which is significantly different. I am doing the latter.

You can, of course, use twodimes.net to do last-draw equity calculations.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
You can, of course, use twodimes.net to do last-draw equity calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

... with the knowledge that A2345 is wrongly a straight instead of A-high card in their 2-7 calculations.

Good enough for most things, but worth remembering for some.