5/10 J9o: Tell me to stop doing this if I should

Nick C · #1 06-21-2006, 06:06 AM

Villain used to be like 57/1/0.5 after 200+. Now he's more like 53/15/0.8 after over 500 (edit: all right, that latest preflop stat is his last 300 or so; I guess the average is more like 55/8). I don't know what's going on. Maybe he's been reading some books or has been reading here. He has moved up from 3/6 to 5/10, though. Anyway, I don't what kind of read to give him exactly, although he's still too loose.

I used to raise the flop or pop the turn in these spots. Now sometimes I raise the flop, more often I pop the turn, and then sometimes I just keep calling and pop the river. (Edit: The cards that fall could change these small-pot plans, of course.)

Thoughts?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (2 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (2 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets . . .

DavidC · #2 06-21-2006, 06:15 AM

Firstly, I like to start this hand by raising PF. You're in position, you're going to hit a lot of flops, and you're probably ahead of whatever the hell he just limped with.

The problem with your line is that he checked the river. You should tend to do this against people that bet the river. Now, I haven't really deeply thought about this yet, so I'm not sure exactly what % of the time they have to bet the river and how their range affects things... etc. etc. My initial instinct is that they have to bet the river 90% of the time, but I could be wrong, certainly.

--Dave.

Solid_p · #3 06-21-2006, 06:24 AM

Stop doing that!

Pop the turn or flop. You're missing a lot of value by not doing this. He will probably call with any piece, despite the smallish pot.

Peter Harris · #4 06-21-2006, 06:33 AM

i'd raise preflop.

given you didn't i raise the turn. If i raise PF, i guess i'm getting checked to on the flop, so i'd bet there.

Kwaz · #5 06-21-2006, 07:20 AM

I'd pop the turn. The board makes it look like a semibluff and for the same reason, there's not a lot of incentive for his worse hands to bet this river given your play.

EgoSlasher · #6 06-21-2006, 11:40 AM

I disagree with this line. I don't know what his W2SD is but for players like these it's usually high. IMO the main decision on this hand is whether to raise the flop or the turn.

The PRO's of raising the flop are:
A) Villain is less likely to give you credit for a hand and may call you down through multiple streets w/ A hi or possibly K hi if he's real loose.
B) It charges any draws immediatly without giving away a cheap card.

The CON's of raising the flop are:
A) It doesn't give him a chance to bluff again on the turn if you're ahead
B) You may miss out on some value by not raising the turn.

The PRO's of raising the turn are:
A) You get an additional 1/2 bet in when you're ahead, if he has absolutely nothing and would muck to a flop raise then you get an additional full bet.

The CON's of raising the turn are:
A) You give him a chance to draw against you cheaply
B) There's quite a few potentially bad turn cards for us and that makes it hard to know where we stand. It'd be real hard to raise the turn if Kd or Qd fell.

Given this I would usually raise the flop, a lot of the time he'll have enough of the board to pay you off anyways and it makes the hand easier to play.

___ · #7 06-21-2006, 11:58 AM

Why does everyone want to raise preflop? Do we develop fold equity by doing so? Are we sufficiently ahead of his range? Are we trying to deter him from open completing in the futre?

I prefer to fast play this on the flop or turn, there isn't much to be gained by slow playing blind battles. Top two is pretty much the nuts, but giving a 5 or 3 infinite odds to draw out on you twice is no good when villain is likely to make an incorrect call down.

This is definitely a spot to mix things up, but many more players are willing to semi-bluff two streets in a row than fire three barrels. Once you call twice you are saying that you are going to showdown, so if villain has junk he knows he can't push you off. Even most bad players figure this out. But if you raise they might think, "He's bluffing" and call you down. They could also think their top pair, middle or pocket pair, or flush draw is worth calling with. Give them the chance to do this.

econophile · #8 06-21-2006, 12:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why does everyone want to raise preflop? Do we develop fold equity by doing so? Are we sufficiently ahead of his range? Are we trying to deter him from open completing in the futre?

[/ QUOTE ]

we likely have an equity edge and get fold equity from raising preflop. also, raising frequently lets the SB know that he will often have to pay 1.5BB to see the flop.

EgoSlasher · #9 06-21-2006, 12:11 PM

Excluding the top 7% pf hands J9o has a 55-45 edge. Problem is the villain is passive and may limp in with his real good hands here.

___ · #10 06-21-2006, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
we likely have an equity edge and get fold equity from raising preflop. also, raising frequently lets the SB know that he will often have to pay 1.5BB to see the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
How much fold equity do we have against this player? Are you saying he will fold a better hand like Q or K high to our continuation bet if he misses? Or are you saying he will fold ace high or a pair?

Is it impossible to make up the money postflop we lose by not raising preflop? I don't mind SB thinking he can limp in with weak hands because I have position and am going to outplay him postflop. Discouraging a terrible player from entering the pot is the last thing I want to do.

What is your raising range when a player like this open completes the SB?

[ QUOTE ]
Excluding the top 7% pf hands J9o has a 55-45 edge. Problem is the villain is passive and may limp in with his real good hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't mind getting fooled a few times as long as it is profitable in the long run.