I let AQs drop like a bad habit

[Grease]

C/R villian is 21/10/2. Other guy is LP. I have been getting burned by turn C/R a lot lately, and did I mess this one up huge? I'm sorry if this hand makes anyone puke. It made me.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

[five4suited]

I know that feeling. every C/R is the nuts or at least a set. you don't give a read or the number of hands, but there's no way I fold tptk here. I would think you're behind but I see all sorts of fancy, pointless plays on the turn. I would call down in this situation -- if a 4th card to the straight fell on the river, then I'd think about folding.

[PSW]

I call down. I think someone with those stats has AQ or KQs enough of the time. The river card does bite though... and might be bad enough to fold river. But for one bet, I probably call that too. "There's a leak in this old game, and my money has got to move..." (Reference to Black Spritual)

psw

[Grease]

Yeah, I would have been much more likely to call the turn had it been a complete blank, but the 7 was an ass-tastic card for me.

Although, should I think he has something like Q8 and has TP and a straight draw to boot, making me more likely to call him down?

[Six]

Let's put villain on some hands:

Given his stats he's probably three betting the really premium hands, so I think we can discount AA-JJ. Given that you raised UTG I have a feeling he's not calling with suited queen trash unless it's KQ,JQ, maybe Q10. He's also probably calling with those middle suited connectors you don't like. Given the action I think we can discount QJ, Q10 pretty heavily given that he waited for the turn to raise. So, we're looking at maybe KQ, pocket pairs, and those middle connectors. The hands that have you beat badly are:

77 (4 combos)
66 (4 combos)
55 (4 combos)
89 (16 combos)

You're also behind:

76 (9 combos)
65 (9 combos)

Maybe a couple more, but we'll leave it at that. So 46 combos you don't like. In contrast you're ahead of:

87 (12 combos)
Q10 (8 combos)
QJ (8 combos)
QK (8 combos)
1010 (6 combos)
99 (6 combos)
88 (6 combos)

If there was a flush draw out I might say Ax, but I think we can discount that. Even still that's about 54 combos and we're way ahead of those hands. So I think we have a good case for calling the turn, and even with the king I think we call the river. I also feel like those hands are relatively conservative and there are probably more hands you beat that are missed than ones you're dominated by.

Did I miss anything?

Edit: Uh, yeah, I missed a lot, namely my own rationale aabout his waiting for the turn to raise. That changes a lot of things. Need to re-edit.

re-edit: So... let's discount the QJ, Q10, and all the non-set middle pairs by only giving credit for about a quarter of them. That gives us about 17 combos for those, for 36 dominated hand combos. Still looks like enough to call to me, but my rationale here may be pretty muddy. Anyone want to help me out?

-Tim

[shark6]

If he flopped a set, why didn't he do the trapping check/raise on the flop? I'd pay him off. With MP2 hanging around the pots plenty big to call down.

[Six]

I agree with calling down, but I don't know that a non check/raise on the flop tells us much. People love to check/raise the turn with sets; just love it.

-Tim

[shark6]

[ QUOTE ]
... I don't know that a non check/raise on the flop tells us much. People love to check/raise the turn with sets; just love it.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but judging by his stats and since he didn't check/raise the flop I think it makes a set less likely.

[Six]

So mostly you're just saying you think I overvalued villain's hand in the above? I can definitely give you that since I was taking a worst case approach in the hopes of it coming out as a call and making it easy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Tim

[Walker]

Couldn't this be a free showdown raise with 88-JJ or a semi bluff raise with something like 87? I'm too tired to do the math, but I'm thinking I like a turn call and a fold to a river K,4,8,9.