114 later stages with TT facing raise

[samsonh]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2605)
UTG+1 (t2150)
CO (t2935)
Hero (t1880)
SB (t2525)
BB (t1405)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t500</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero ??????????</font>


Villain is 23.5/8 over 204 hands. No reads other than this. I feel like I face this situation at least a couple times a day and constantly mess it up. Fold or push here? How much does it change if villain is a regular?

[curtains]

Tough spot but Id go allin, because his raise is from 2 off the button. UTG+1 isn't really an accurate portrayl of his position [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Shillx]

Can't get the chips in quick enough. Again if he never folds he has to be on the top 7% or less to make pushing incorrect.

Edit - Curtains I agree with your 2nd point 100%.

[Velocity]

I push, I see him raise/folding a lot of worse hands here.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Can't get the chips in quick enough. Again if he never folds he has to be on the top 7% or less to making pushing incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah ok its not really a tough spot as I said. But when its a 10 handed table and it really is UTG raising, then it can be.

[samsonh]

Honestly I don't see how everyone thinks its such an easy push. First thing that bothers me is that this is a typed in bet, which may not mean anything but definitely means huge hand for some people. He is not overly loose in the hands I have with him so if I assign him a range its not a range I enjoy being up against. I'd say typical villains here will call with AQo+,JJ+. If we say hes raising AT-AJ here(which I dobt he is) hes going to throw those away and only call with hands that have me flipping at best and dominated at worst.

[Shillx]

Let's just say that his range is 66+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs. If you move in and he never folds (and no one else wakes up with a hand) your equity is 14.8% of the the prize pool. Your equity when he steals the blinds is 14.5% of the PP so moving in is slightly better then folding if he always takes the blinds (which he won't but no way is folding worth +0.3% more then SNGPT would suggest).

Now say he only calls with AQ+ and JJ+ (or 43% of the time and you have 40.1% equity against that range). Now your equity when called is just 4.6% of the prize pool. The 57% of the time that you don't get called your equity is 11.6% of the PP and your total equity is 15.7% (or +1.2% compared to folding preflop). So you really don't mind him folding hands that you beat in this situation. Really the worst case scenario for you is when he calls with all of this hands (unless he is on a random hand for example in which case you want him to call with 18% equity). But against any reasonable range you are better off when the villian folds some % of the time.

[Eagles]

the typed in bet is standard my open here is almost always 500.

[b33nz]

i push