Is this an ok spot to semibluff? SB v. BB

[skier_5]

Table has been pretty aggressive, villian seemed fairly tight and just got his big stack a couple hands ago when he got AI preflop with AA.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t4000 with t200 antes (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t48190)
UTG+1 (t71635)
MP1 (t178168)
CO (t72370)
Button (t137820)
SB (t152141)
Hero (t104111)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t16000</font>, Hero calls t12000

Flop: (t35400) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets t20000</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t87911 (All-in)</font>, SB calls t67911

Turn: (t211222) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t211222) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

[skier_5]

According to my math..

Let's say he folds half the time so I win the 53400 in the pot 50% of the time. I calculated my equity against villian's hand and it was 35% so 17.5% of the time I win 121000 or so and 32.5% of the time I lose the 88000 in front of me. If I did the math right (and I'm not sure if I did or not) I should average a 20k gain or a 20% stack increase, but I bust 1/3 of the time and given that I had a top 10 stack of 50 or so left, I dunno, thoughts?

[skier_5]

anyone?

[Moose747]

I fold preflop.

[skier_5]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think that was a bad call, maybe if we were deeper though.

[dsmith19711]

Since you have described villain as tight, he raised PF (granted, from the SB), and the only showdown you have seen from him was AA, I think a 50% likelihood of his folding is optimistic.

However, I ran some numbers, and even if he folds only 30% of the time and your only outs are your straight cards, you are still at just below neutral value (-347 by my calculations). So if you think he is folding in the neighborhodd of 50% of the time, it is a +value push.

If villain is c-betting a missed flop and your 9 and 10 are both outs as well, it becomes a much better value. This result really surprises me, since without running any numbers I would have said it is a definite fold.

I am interested to see what the more statistically sophisticated players think.