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#1
06-05-2006, 08:39 PM
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600nl QQ overpair river fold
Just sat at table, villain is new to me, brief stats indicate he is 33/33 over 12 hands, which is of course basically meaningless data. PF call for me is standard, the float on a rag flop I'll do sometimes, and it also generally lets me get to the river cheaply. turn check is i think standard since the turn will be check-raised a lot by hands better or worse than mine. the plan was to call a reasonable bet on a non A or K river.
On the J river he bet very quickly. Because of this I think it is unlikely he is bluffing with AK. AA, KK, and now JJ seem much more likely to me than AK or TT or anything else, making this a fold of an overpair to a smallish bet in a big pot. Thoughts? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Button ($199.15) SB ($1414.95) BB ($120) Hero ($966.25) Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $81</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $57. Flop: ($168) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $86</font>, Hero calls $86. Turn: ($340) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, Hero checks. River: ($340) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $236</font>, Hero folds. Final Pot: $340 
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#3
06-05-2006, 08:56 PM
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Re: 600nl QQ overpair river fold
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn strong, fold to a raise. [/ QUOTE ] Eh I don't really see the point in betting the turn. It reeks of a "find out where I'm at" raise which is generally not a good idea and not worth doing to protect against an A/K on river. River is read dependant if he RR's light then I insta call but you have no reads so I would assume he's fairly tight and has you beat.
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#4
06-05-2006, 09:03 PM
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Re: 600nl QQ overpair river fold
I should have said if he's checking through the turn, he should call this bet.
I guess the insta bet read smells like a whiffed c/r, but I still look him up and see how he plays his premiums.
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#5
06-06-2006, 12:50 AM
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Re: 600nl QQ overpair river fold
[ QUOTE ]
I should have said if he's checking through the turn, he should call this bet. [/ QUOTE ] Usually, yes. [ QUOTE ] I guess the insta bet read smells like a whiffed c/r, but I still look him up and see how he plays his premiums. [/ QUOTE ] Ugh, wtf. I don't think the information is THAT valuable.
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#8
06-06-2006, 02:48 AM
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Re: 600nl QQ overpair river fold
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call this river. I don't see him checking turn with bigger overpairs too often. Also, he's betting AJ here for value... [/ QUOTE ] you think his OOP re-raising range includes AJ? I was assuming I was against TT-AA, AK. I'm new to the level, to those familiar with it, how light are people reraising at the 600s?
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#10
06-06-2006, 04:57 AM
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Re: 600nl QQ overpair river fold
1. This is 4-handed – at $600 an unknown’s range to rr is pretty wide and definitely includes AJ and plenty of worse hands than that.
2. The flop lead is weak. Monster (read AA or 2pr+) or air / overcards would be my read 3. Turn check indicates the latter 4. So I think river bet is a bluff or a slightly iffy value bet with a paired J
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