River decision

2Paul2 · #1 05-19-2006, 10:43 PM

I've just sat down and I've never played with villain before so I'm completely readless.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $266.91
Hero: $192.55
SB: $132.95
BB: $200

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to $8, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($47, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($117, 2 players)
BB bets $91.09,

Hero?

Any idea of a hand range for him here?

Also if he had checked the river I was planning on pushing. I doubt there's any value and he will probably have a missed draw but I would hate to check back and have him scoop with 99-QQ. So thoughts appreciated on that too? Prolly spewy without a read?

Paul

absoludicrous · #2 05-19-2006, 10:56 PM

I like raising this flop. It does two things for you. #1, it gives you an opportunity to end the hand right now and pick up the pot. #2, if he raises, he's defined his hand, you'll know that you're beat, and won't be pressured into calling a turn bet if an ace hits.

As played, I'm not a fan; because of your call on the flop. I don't think we can call this river bet. We're only beating a lower pair, air, and a weaker 8. With no reads on your opponent, I'm not confident enough in callilng this. I don't see either one of those hands making this play.

HoldEmNewby · #3 05-19-2006, 11:11 PM

I like absoludicrous's line, lets use our position: raise the flop, if we get reraised I think without a read its time to fold.

As played (if we could rewind a bit) I'd say check behind on the turn (lets not swell the pot with 2nd pair on a paired board).

I think we need to fold this river regardless.

2Paul2 · #4 05-20-2006, 07:57 AM

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I like raising this flop. It does two things for you. #1, it gives you an opportunity to end the hand right now and pick up the pot. #2, if he raises, he's defined his hand, you'll know that you're beat, and won't be pressured into calling a turn bet if an ace hits.

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I like absoludicrous's line, lets use our position: raise the flop, if we get reraised I think without a read its time to fold.

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Wanting to end the hand right now whould never be a reason for any action. You want to take the line that maximises your ev. Raising won't define his hand at all, it will just give him the opportunity to push a ton of possible draws and and fold anything I'm beating.

Raising does not let us utilize our position at all. It makes it worthless because he will usually push everything that beats us as well as a number of hands that don't and allow him to fold everthing we have have crushed(a worse 8/pp<88/air). Calling allows us to utilize our position because he has to act first on the turn and we will often get alot of information from his turn bet or lack of on various cards.

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As played (if we could rewind a bit) I'd say check behind on the turn (lets not swell the pot with 2nd pair on a paired board).

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Checking behind on the turn definitely has advantages(pot control/induce river bluffs or value from worse hands that will fold to a turn bet) and I will do some% of the time but betting has advantages to. When he checks the turn he is very likely on a draw so betting protects what is often the best hand. If he has 99-QQ he is going to have a hard time continuing. I will float this flop occasionally and so I need to bet when I have a hand sometimes or my bets when I don't won't have any creditability.

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As played, I'm not a fan; because of your call on the flop. I don't think we can call this river bet. We're only beating a lower pair, air, and a weaker 8. With no reads on your opponent, I'm not confident enough in callilng this. I don't see either one of those hands making this play.

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You say only beating but those hands make up a significant part of his range up to the river in my opinion. Air accounts for a ton of possible hands to given all the missed draws. After that river bet I would say a worse 8/small pp aren't very likely though. What I want to know though is what does he play this way that beats me?

Jamougha · #5 05-20-2006, 08:09 AM

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What I want to know though is what does he play this way that beats me?

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8x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is the only really likely one. Other than that he probably has missed clubs or occasionally weird donkishness.

Agree raising the flop sucks.

sdfsdf · #6 05-20-2006, 09:26 AM

looks like a busted fd

absoludicrous · #7 05-20-2006, 02:24 PM

Why are you guys obsessed with maximizing EV with small lone pairs? I don't understand the theory of playing large pots with a pair of 8's. Do you actually want a lot of conflict with this hand? Call me crazy, and I may be incorrect, but when I want to maximize EV, I do it with hands that have a high percentage of winning showdowns. Otherwise, I'm looking to raise, and take the pot before the river. I think this particular hand needs to be ended before the river. If possible. There are 9 clubs you don't want to see, in addition to 5 over cards (9,T,J,Q,K) is it likely he has one of those cards...who knows, but we can't ignore anything that beats a pair of 8's.

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Also if he had checked the river I was planning on pushing.

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Are you serious?

Fallen Hero · #8 05-20-2006, 02:31 PM

Looks like spades.

2Paul2 · #9 05-20-2006, 03:34 PM

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Why are you guys obsessed with maximizing EV with small lone pairs? I don't understand the theory of playing large pots with a pair of 8's.

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Then why do you want to raise the flop.

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Do you actually want a lot of conflict with this hand?

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No which is exactly why I'm not raising the flop.

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Call me crazy, and I may be incorrect, but when I want to maximize EV, I do it with hands that have a high percentage of winning showdowns.

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You should always be trying to maximize your ev with every hand you play.

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Otherwise, I'm looking to raise, and take the pot before the river. I think this particular hand needs to be ended before the river. If possible.

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So basically you want to take a line that minimizes your ev in order to to avoid tough decisions on later streets. This will lower your variance but it sure won't maximize your win rate.

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There are 9 clubs you don't want to see, in addition to 5 over cards (9,T,J,Q,K) is it likely he has one of those cards...who knows, but we can't ignore anything that beats a pair of 8's.

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That's the beauty of position. He has to act 1st on the turn and his actions will often give us a good idea of whether a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or overcard have helped or hindered him.

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Quote:
Also if he had checked the river I was planning on pushing.

Are you serious?

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I gave a reason why in my op and also said in hindsight it was prolly a bad idea. No need to get tetchy.

Paul

absoludicrous · #10 05-20-2006, 04:28 PM

Good points Paul.

Check this out. While I think a river push is spewing, because you're only getting called if you're beat, and you can probably 3/4 pot it and take it down anyway. I'm curious as to what would happen if you'd have potted the turn. Think it would have made any difference? With 2 draws out there, I think I would have potted it. Not that it will get villain to fold, but you're charging him 2:1 to draw, rather than 2.5:1 (like I said, probably makes no difference) What about over betting the pot? Maybe cutting his pot odds to 1.5:1 or something?