1 Tough Value Bet, 1 Tough Fold

[gaming_mouse]

First the fold, because I think it's correct given this oppo but some may not.....

UTG (36/8/1.2) raises, I 3b AA in BB, he caps
J58 flop, which I c/r.
9 turn, b/c.
T river, b/r... Can you fold here?

Now the value bet on a double paired board....

1 limper, SB completes, I raise 99 in BB
668, I bet and both call. these guys are loose passive.
A (putting up 3 diamonds), SB checks and only he calls my bet.
A, and SB checks again. Who bets here?

My thinking was that the A is a card that makes you think it'll get checked behind, so you bet out with it, so he prolly doesn't have it. Also the flush pops the turn.

[wheelz]

definitely fold hand 1 and definitely bet hand 2. you're right you would've heard from a 6 a flush or probably an ace too. if he c/rs the river i fold that too.

[The Bryce]

I would check-call the river in hand 1 unless I really trust the guy. A lot of worse hands won't call once the 4 straight falls and some of them may still bet if you check. So there's not much value in betting and you don't want to get blasted out of your pot.

Hand 2 is an easy bet.

[wheelz]

you're saying this passive player is betting more hands for value on the river than he'll call a bet with? that doesn't sound right

[The Bryce]

No, I'm just rambling there. I'm usually willing to give up a tiny bit of value on the river here to protect myself from an easy bluff HU. The important part is that he folds a lot of his one pair hand here. So what I'm saying is that the bet can often cost you more on average than it's worth.

[Alobar]

hand 1 is all read dependant.

Hand 2 I bet

[Jeffage]

Why would you bet the river in hand one? I think that's pretty bad as there are many ways you're boned and if you check he may make a thin VB or bluff. But if you bet, it's doubtful he'd call with a marginal hand and a bluff raise becomes possible. All signs lead to check call to me.

Hand 2 is a fine VB. I bet and hope to be called by an 8. It's thin but whatever - an ace bets it somewhere cause he doesn't make you for a boat. Most of the times, he'll fold to your bet.

Jeff

[jason_t]

In hand one you put yourself in a tough spot by betting the river. Check/call all day long.

Hand two isn't that tough of a bet. I suspect he'll fold a lot but sometimes call with an 8.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
In hand one you put yourself in a tough spot by betting the river. Check/call all day long

[/ QUOTE ]

Jah. You guys are right.