AKo v. donk 6m nl50

[Maulik]

Villain in this hand is vpip 40%
Just sat, button covers has been opening a fair share of pots, sb / villain is 40%vpip.

Thoughts?
Party Poker ($0.5 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter

UTG ($79.50) (UTG)
BTN ($154.10) (BTN)
HERO ($51.50) [ A K ] (BB)
CO ($43.30) (CO)
SB ($48.50) (SB)
MP ($17.76) (MP)

Preflop (6 players):
UTG calls ($0.50).
MP checks.
1 fold.
BTN raises $2.50.
SB calls ($2.25).
HERO raises $7.50.
3 folds.
SB calls ($5.50).

Flop (39 bets ($19.5) in pot, 2 players): J J K
SB checks.
HERO bets $12.00.
SB raises $40.50.
HERO calls ($28.50).


Turn (201.00 bets ($100.50) in pot, 2 players): J J K 6


River (201.00 bets ($100.50) in pot, 2 players): J J K 6 3

[terp]

no me gusta.

PFRR is good given button's play.

i'm not too happy seeing this flop. we have a decent hand on a drawy board with a paired undercard that a lot of people are likely to play in a raised pot. w/o a read telling us how he plays trips v. big draw v. TP, etc., it's hard to distinguish whether we're WA (rarely, only against KQ or a naked flush draw-type bluff), close to tied (sometimes, against big draw hands) or WB (Jx). so betting on the flop sets up a tough spot for us w/o reads. this would be much easier IMO if there were no flush draw (clearer fold if c/r'd)

i think the need to protect against the flush is much less important than pot control when another piece of broadway is paired. still, the pot is pretty big and i don't see how we get to showdown without getting all in, so i don't really have any line i particularly like beyond checking the flop behind.

when you bet 12, he knows you only have to call 30 here for a shot at 70 and few people fold with those odds. i think he wants a call here more times than not. either he is beating you or is bad at hand reading and THINKS he is beating you.

i also expect that this will be one of those hands where people say, dude his VPIP is 40 he could have *anything.* VPIP is useful but not enough. if we're going to datamine to learn stats we need to remember that they are not enough w/o some knowledge of play style.

anyway, i'm not looking to get all in here.

[2Paul2]

Raise a little more pf and check the flop. A part from KQ this is a bad flop for you to get value off worse hands. There is a flush draw there but given how much he called pf I would expect his hand range to be weighted more towards pp's and decent broadways than suited stuff.

As played I prolly fold. I doubt you see hearts or KQ enough to make the call.

Paul

[Fallen Hero]

Unlike everyone else I don't think he has KQ or hearts hardly ever here. I think this is a J or air 99% of the time.

EDIT: ok, 99% is just stupid, probably around 80%