$55 Bubble push

AliasMrJones · #1 05-03-2006, 12:33 AM

Lost half my stack to BB within the last 4 or 5 hands when I pushed with KJs on button and he called with AJ. Pushed last hand in SB and wasn't called. SB and BB are both TAG. Push this? (I'm not looking for SnGPT numbers as I can get those myself, but "at the table" opinion.)

PartyPoker $55 Regular Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2380)
AliasMrJones (t4632)
SB (t3178)
BB (t9810)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">AliasMrJones raises to t4632 (All-in)</font>

zipppy · #2 05-03-2006, 01:47 AM

If you know they're both TAG, I think the push is probably good. The odds of SB calling are obviously very small.

A couple of things to consider in regards to the merit of folding:

--Repeated pushes always run the risk of loosening up calling ranges (if ever so slightly).

--Some opponents will want to defend their BB occasionally, especially if calling doesn't really put them in danger of busting, which it wouldn't for the BB in this situation.

I think either of these are very slight factors, especially depending on the awareness of your opponents.

zip

AMT · #3 05-03-2006, 02:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you know they're both TAG, I think the push is probably good. The odds of SB calling are obviously very small.

A couple of things to consider in regards to the merit of folding:

--Repeated pushes always run the risk of loosening up calling ranges (if ever so slightly).

[/ QUOTE ]

i think these are your two main factors...they are TAG, but youve said that recently youve been seen pushing button with K J and lost, and have gotten your stack cut in half. because of recent pushing frenzy, and your non desperate position, i might fold this based on your described newfound image bc idea that these villains ranges will now likely be Ax, KQ, pp if they call you. youre not a favorite against this range and you can take a break from pushbotting. shove is OK but i prefer a fold, basically.

DRRPoker · #4 05-03-2006, 10:18 AM

Showing down KJ is not bad after a push. Shorthanded KJ is an excellent hand and the caller with AJ had an outstanding hand. If the BB thinks you are only pushing with KJo or better, he will fold 90+% of the time. Maybe I'm too tight, but when I'm BB I don't want to call an allin that will take half of my stack and put me with the pack holding a marginal hand. I'd call with any A, a big K or a pair. That's it. I want to use my stack to put pressure on everyone else, not make difficult decisions.

bruin · #5 05-03-2006, 02:40 AM

I know I might get harangued for this, but would you consider a raise to t1600? You still have pretty good fold equity and position after the flop if you do get called. I would just fold preflop if you think BB will resteal with a wide range of hands. I still like the t1600 raise though. You have a very good chance of taking the pot, if you get called you have position with a showdownable hand, and if you get re-raised all in you could fold safely still with a decent chance of cashing.

pineapple888 · #6 05-03-2006, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I know I might get harangued for this, but would you consider a raise to t1600? You still have pretty good fold equity and position after the flop if you do get called. I would just fold preflop if you think BB will resteal with a wide range of hands. I still like the t1600 raise though. You have a very good chance of taking the pot, if you get called you have position with a showdownable hand, and if you get re-raised all in you could fold safely still with a decent chance of cashing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Puke. Nobody's calling here.

If BB knows what he is doing I push and have done with it. Although it's no bargain. If you give a few chips from the other stacks to BB then I dump it.

Shillx · #7 05-03-2006, 02:51 AM

I don't know for sure, but this looks like one of those "SNGPT pushes". A push in a vacuum that should be a fold at the poker table. I don't have SNGPT but I would fold this hand. Give me A8s and yeah maybe I push but I fold A7s down.

pineapple888 · #8 05-03-2006, 02:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know for sure, but this looks like one of those "SNGPT pushes". A push in a vacuum that should be a fold at the poker table. I don't have SNGPT but I would fold this hand. Give me A8s and yeah maybe I push but I fold A7s down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any particular reason? Just curious, I'll stick with SNGPT in any case, thanks.

aujoz · #9 05-03-2006, 03:01 AM

This:
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know for sure, but this looks like one of those "SNGPT pushes". A push in a vacuum that should be a fold at the poker table. I don't have SNGPT but I would fold this hand. Give me A8s and yeah maybe I push but I fold A7s down.

[/ QUOTE ]

and this:

[ QUOTE ]
(I'm not looking for SnGPT numbers as I can get those myself, but "at the table" opinion.)

[/ QUOTE ]

both seem absurd.

this is a perfect opportunity to use SNGPT - as long as you put people on the correct calling ranges

use calling ranges that take into account the recent activity and information on other players. that means, loosen calling ranges. sngpt was made for this. if you're not using sngpt for this, then you're being silly and making emotional decisions rather than +EV decisions.

Shillx · #10 05-03-2006, 03:07 AM

How do you put people on ranges...can you read minds? If so, teach me. The problem with putting people on ranges is that you bias yourself into putting them on ranges that commend your play. I put people on optimal ranges and it came out to + 0.1%. A8s was +0.3%. Again this was not with the actual stack sizes but I manipulted it to get it close.

The problem is that a SNGPT +0.1% push will be a -0.2% push (or -0.5% or even money) at the poker table. Now +0.3% may or may not be too much hand...that I don't know.