HPC 15/30 - KQo River

[shant]

Hollywood Park Casino - 15/30

My table image is I make lots of sets. I haven't shown down a loser since the new game formed maybe 5-6 orbits ago.

SB is a middle-aged woman who looks like a floater. She has a sour expression on her face. I feel like she's floated me a couple times, but the hands haven't gone to showdown. She is coldcalling a lot, but I haven't seen what she's raising with. I have seen her showdown middle-pair but she played it very passively. The only other hand I remember showing down of note was trip tens, Q-kicker, which she 3-bet on the turn.

Preflop: 3 limpers to me in the CO, I raise KQo, everyone folds to SB who calls, BB calls, limpers call.

Flop: QT7r (12 SB)
Checked to me and I bet, SB checkraises, the field folds, I 3-bet, SB 4-bets, I call.

Turn: 7 (10 BB)
SB checks, I bet, SB calls.

River: 6 (no flush possible) (12 BB)
SB checks, I?

[mike l.]

nobody floats in that game. they just play their cards and play them badly. you must bet the river.

[mikeyKay]

villian does not seem tricky enought to CR the river, and i think there is tons of value in a river bet.

-mike

[Jeffage]

I find value in a river bet since it seems like she wouldn't slow down if she good beat kings up with a good kicker. Maybe she just called AK btf and irrationally fears a seven or bullets from you? Either way, she's not raising if she somehow has a better hand and she's calling with worse. Clear bet.

FWIW, I don't raise before the flop in this situation.

Jeff

[Joe Tall]

You bet, NH.

[brettbrettr]

I'd bet, and I think there's probably value in it, but her flop action/turn check still confuses me. Could she really have top two and think the turn counterfeited her?

[Duerig]

I don't know this game but it looks like she thinks her QT is behind your AA / KK. Which it is not. I might check this river. I'm curious as to what everyone else is putting her on with that flop cap.

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know this game but it looks like she thinks her QT is behind your AA / KK. Which it is not. I might check this river. I'm curious as to what everyone else is putting her on with that flop cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see a lot of merit to this. Top pair weaker kicker is an unlikely holding after that flop action. I think QT is the most likely holding, and some players (albeit usually not live players) could have a very stupidly played 98.

I probably wouldn't think to check behind, but I think it's a decent spot for it.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]

I probably wouldn't think to check behind, but I think it's a decent spot for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. QT is pretty likely, especially if it's the lady I'm thinking of. Did she have dark hair with splashes of grey in it?

I think she has either a draw or QT... she wouldn't play the flop that way with a worse Q than you (QJ? Q9?), so she's either calling your river bet with QT/AQ, or folding with a missed draw -- and that's still unlikely.

[jason_t]

I hoped shant would post this hand (and was going to myself if he didn't) because I thought the decision to bet the river is considerably closer than 2+2ers would make it out to be (ZOMG TPGK ON THE RIVER AND VILLAIN CHECKZORED!).

Range after the flop check/raise, flop cap, turn check is weighted towards QT, KJ, 89 and then some hands like 77, AQ, KQ, QJ and then some hands like AA/KK. 89 just got there, KJ isn't calling and there's no value against QT/77/AQ/KQ/AA/KK.

Check.