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  #1  
Old 11-08-2007, 05:13 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default I dare to ask a preflop question

I was reading the discussion in this post and the discussion about 4-betting preflop with QQ, and it reminded me of something that came up the last time I was playing 15/30 that is specific to the 5-bet cap rule.

Bellagio 15/30

An early position player open-raises, there are three coldcallers, and I 3-bet QQ from one of the blind positions. The original raiser 4-bets and it's called all the way back around to me. I capped it "for value" against 4 players.

This is a spot where I wonder whether I really have that much value to cap it being OOP against 4 players, one of which potentially holds an overpair (giving the 4-bettor AK/AA/KK plus an occasional JTs or other multiway hand that he's getting frisky with).
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  #2  
Old 11-08-2007, 06:10 PM
Abbaddabba Abbaddabba is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.


main factor to consider: equity edge or not
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  #3  
Old 11-08-2007, 06:39 PM
NinaWilliams NinaWilliams is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]
just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.


main factor to consider: equity edge or not

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote equity edge.
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  #4  
Old 11-08-2007, 06:54 PM
ProfessorBen ProfessorBen is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.

AKo/JJ/AQs is closer.
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  #5  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:12 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]
So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of your equation makes me wonder. Would you auto-cap QQ in a 4-handed pot with the same action? 3-handed? Heads up?

The hand count isn't *that* favorable. 16-12 is about about 57-43, and I'm a huge dog (with bad RIO flopping an overpair) against AA/KK and a small favorite against AK. Considering preflop equity against those hands HU,

20% against 12 hands = 2.4 wins
50% against 16 hands = 8 wins

So 10.4 wins out of 28 hands is hovering near 37% equity. The extra players in the pot still have *some* equity, and when I have the best hand, they're usually taking it from me and my 8 wins. So in a 3-handed pot it seems like I'm coming close to break-even and so this does not become an auto-cap anymore. Does this analysis seem correct?
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  #6  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:45 PM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

Without trying a stove, I'd think about what kind of boards are likely to result in you being a winner. First you have the times when your QQ is the highest overpair and it manages to hold up. Then you have the times where you manage to back into a four card flush or straight that is good. Finally you have the times when you spike a third Q (about 20% of the time) and your hand holds up. You'll lose with your sets fairly often when they don't fill up and someone makes a straight or flush. Even so, I'd imagine your equity in this spot is 25% or so, maybe as high as 30% if the cold-callers are willing to play absolute junk in this spot.
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  #7  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:59 PM
ProfessorBen ProfessorBen is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

Liberal: (Wide range for coldcallers, Villain 4-bets JJ+, AK, AQs)

---
5,339,631 games 18.344 secs 291,083 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.448% 28.98% 01.60% 1547484 85631.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 31.502% 30.70% 02.02% 1639020 108039.75 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 13.024% 12.87% 00.66% 687219 35090.58 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 3: 13.010% 12.86% 00.65% 686681 34855.42 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 4: 13.015% 12.87% 00.65% 687000 34812.25 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }


---

Conservative: (Tighter range for coldcallers, Villain 3-bets KK+, AK)
---
5,752,745 games 10.031 secs 573,496 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.073% 29.74% 00.18% 1711003 10168.27 { QQ }
Hand 1: 37.394% 38.79% 01.07% 2231254 61417.18 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 11.516% 11.42% 00.85% 656988 49056.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 3: 11.509% 11.42% 00.85% 656794 48856.52 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 4: 11.507% 11.41% 00.85% 656557 48961.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
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  #8  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:02 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]
just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered this, but I don't think it's true.

If I cap preflop and the flop is J-high, I'm leading out. But if I just call the 4-bet, I don't think I would. Or maybe I should?
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  #9  
Old 11-09-2007, 07:06 AM
Jules22 Jules22 is offline
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Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

i like a cap there
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