3-Flush Flop Steal

[Hyperrrprank]

Hawaiian Gardens 8/16

Button and Hero are the big winners in the game, with Hero up 5.5 racks and enemy up 3. The enemy in this situation seems decent, but has been beat by Hero in a couple big hands and has reined in some of his aggression to protect his winnings. He has also demonstrated the ability to fold hands when he believes he's beaten.


Preflop: 1 limper in middle position (loose weak player), Hero raises in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Button reraises, blinds and limper fold, Hero calls

Flop:
K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, BN bets, Hero checkraises

Note that Hero is ready to surrender the hand if the BN fires back immediately. In this case the BN folded and showed JJ with no club. Is this something that seems like a decent steal opportunity? If the enemy calls, what's our plan for the turn?

[andyfox]

First, I wouldn't be so quick to fold if he fires back, it looks bad to the bystanders.

What do you figure his pre-flop 3-bet range to be. Given that he's tightening up, how about A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K and A-Qs? Given that, he's likely only folding J-J and maybe, probably, A-Qs to your check raise.

[Hyperrrprank]

If wasn't his preflop range that he'd tightened, that was still pretty loose, it was his willingness to hold onto second best hands that was waivering. Still, the 3-bet defined his hand as reasonably strong. Based on my read preflop that he was unhappy playing against me I had him for 10-10, J-J, Q-Q, or KQs-QJs, the A-A, K-K, and AKs were certainly possible given the 3-bet, but seemed unlikely if my read was right. After playing with him for a while I felt like he was capable of throwing away even a QJs here if it was the wrong suit. I had shown down a lot of strong cards (AA three times in an hour)and high suited cards so my raises were getting a lot of respect.

That said I do think this was a marginal move, there are more hands than I'd figured that he'd just call me with, and then I'm stuck figuring out if I can take it on the turn. That's my bigger question I think, how likely is the turn bluff to take this down? If a fourth club comes it seems like an easy bet, and a 10 other than the 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] puts me in good position, but anything else I'm unsure of.

[bboy_]

i would just fold this

[PokerJans]

Pot here is also rather small

[KitCloudkicker]

long term i think this play isnt particularly worth doing unless you have a very specific read that the villain is weak. even if he cant beat a K or Q its too likely that he's got a club and is calling down. in addition this flop fits a lot of what the villain could 3 bet the button with.

fwiw, if i were villain on this hadd i'd also fold TT and JJ on the flop, but i would not play AK, AQ, or AA (no club) aggressively on it either, figuring that i'd let you hang yourself if you were bluffing but also not pay thru the nose when i was beat. my point here is that you're probably not going to get 3 bet often here.

assuming villain does not 3 bet, how many streets are you betting? turn? or turn and river?

[andyfox]

"Based on my read preflop that he was unhappy playing against me I had him for 10-10, J-J, Q-Q, or KQs-QJs, the A-A, K-K, and AKs were certainly possible given the 3-bet, but seemed unlikely if my read was right."

??

[Maliant]

I think flop is an easy fold... the pot is small.