200PLO: Set + NFD on straightboard

[TimberBee]

Villain is a regular, a little bit on the passive side.

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $136.50
UTG+1: $107
CO: $284.50
Hero: $223.65
SB: $194.75
BB: $52.05

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($10, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $9.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $38</font>, 3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($86, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero ????

[original_red]

I hate these spots.. would like to see some pro advice here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PLOlover]

well you're about 40% against a straight, and about 20% against top set on the turn.

the good news is that top set won't check raise all in on the turn, but (top) straight will.

looks to be player dependent to me, look at things like went to showdown, won at showdown, I would probably pot against a wild player and check against a solid.

[Big Dave D]

This is really quite tangential, and not hugely related to your specific question, but we talk about a similar situation in a lot of detail here

gl

bdd

[Aisthesis]

I like your flop raise.

On the blank turn, hmmmm, I think I'd fire again to a check. It seems rather strange to me for him to check QT there, and anything else really should fold. I'd obviously particularly like to shut out JJ here, and you can't do that unless you very clearly rep the nut straight.

[Aisthesis]

I think the real question is whether JJ will still call half-pot on a blank river if you bet the turn. I think he has to be VERY sheriffy/skeptical of your bets to do that.

Also, in theory anyway, naked QT should just check-call, assuming you have a split with redraw of some kind. But a lot of players will CRAI to a bet there on just naked QT.

Anyhow, I really think the equity you gain by betting vs. JJ, to which you're significantly behind, is worth the potential pot inflation you get vs. QT, to which you're now a little behind (and hence indeed would prefer not to get it all in, but it's not a disaster).

[Craggoo]

I think you'll find you're up against 2 pair + a spade or backdoor heart draw. You've given him a chance to put a big bet out there if he truly did have QT and he chose not to.

[TheRempel]

I'd bet 2/3 pot to encourage him to bluff the river when a spade or board pair hits and he thinks he can push me off a straight.

[iggymcfly]

I hate this spot. Every time, I think I'll just get it all-in on the flop as a favorite against a straight or make top set fold and every time, they wait for the turn and then get all-in with the straight when I'm behind.

The question is "how passive is villain?" If he's passive enough to check top set on the flop, and you feel like it's pretty likely he has the straight here, then you definitely want to check behind and take a free card on your draw while you're still significantly (if not horribly far) behind.

If you think villain's playing JJ like this every time and is fairly likely to felt a straight on the flop or to lead one on the turn, you can bet here and then try to bluff off top set on the river. Remember, for this play to work, villain has to be able to lay down a hand in addition to being able to have JJ. That's a tricky combo.

[alavet]

2/3