PLO $200, middle set against probable trip aces, call all in?

MadScientist · #1 08-14-2006, 10:14 PM

Stack sizes are not equal here and I think that matters a lot.
BB is 30/5/3.39
Other player kind of sucks.

Seems suicidial, but I wanted to call...

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button folds, Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $25, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($79, 3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $65, MP1 raises to $277, Hero calls all-in $182.44, BB calls all-in $73.25.
Uncalled bets: $94.56 returned to MP1.

Edit: Stack sizes didn't show up:
BB $165.25
MP $404.59
Hero $209.44

joewatch · #2 08-14-2006, 10:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes are not equal here and I think that matters a lot.
BB is 30/5/3.39
Other player kind of sucks.

Seems suicidial, but I wanted to call...

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button folds, Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $25, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($79, 3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $65, MP1 raises to $277, Hero calls all-in $182.44, BB calls all-in $73.25.
Uncalled bets: $94.56 returned to MP1.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way I put in any more $ post flop after MP1 raises. Most likely you are a monster dog / sharing outs and maybe dead to 1 out. If it were HU, I could see check-calling.

donkey · #3 08-14-2006, 10:26 PM

get allin. who cares what they have you got like so many outs

joewatch · #4 08-14-2006, 10:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
get allin. who cares what they have you got like so many outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your careful analysis. Just out of curiosity, what do think MP2 has? Nut flush draw? There goes 1/2 of your outs. KJTx? Another 3 outs gone. Well, nothing wrong with gambling. Unless you like money.

joewatch · #5 08-14-2006, 10:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
get allin. who cares what they have you got like so many outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your careful analysis. Just out of curiosity, what do think MP2 has? Nut flush draw? There goes 1/2 of your outs. KJTx? Another 3 outs gone because you are splitting Well, nothing wrong with gambling. Unless you like money.

[/ QUOTE ]

MadScientist · #6 08-14-2006, 11:37 PM

Yeah, it is hard to quantify what the probability that one of the opponents has AAxx and on has Kxspadesxx.
Also, it is hard to quantify what is the chance that my set is good. However, if we neglect this chance, I am fine with it...
Also, JoeWatch, you do not address the fact that I have 40 dollars or so which I will only have to contest MP for. Also, my read on him is that he sucks. I think this is important. How much does he suck?
He is a 59/6.59/0.46 over less than 100 hands, but suckiness like this shows up quickly.
He plays 59 percent of all hands, can we really put him on KJT spades???

Anyone else consider calling, actually make the call?

heresjohnny · #7 08-15-2006, 05:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]

nothing wrong with gambling. Unless you like money.

[/ QUOTE ]

kylma · #8 08-15-2006, 07:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, it is hard to quantify what the probability that one of the opponents has AAxx and on has Kxspadesxx.
Also, it is hard to quantify what is the chance that my set is good. However, if we neglect this chance, I am fine with it...
Also, JoeWatch, you do not address the fact that I have 40 dollars or so which I will only have to contest MP for. Also, my read on him is that he sucks. I think this is important. How much does he suck?
He is a 59/6.59/0.46 over less than 100 hands, but suckiness like this shows up quickly.
He plays 59 percent of all hands, can we really put him on KJT spades???

Anyone else consider calling, actually make the call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call this, and I believe if you make your flush you're often taking down a big pot, if not, you could be getting some of your money back from the MP. Sometimes you have the best hand on the flop.

Given your read, 0.46 guys don't like to go all-in with even the best wrap hands. He's calling it down (and sometimes folding for 5 bucks on the river).
Given his looseness, I believe he could have 77, or almost any 2 pair.. He could have QJ75 with a jack high flush draw.

BB is aggressive enough that I wouldn't necessarily put him to aces. He's shortstacked so we gotta still think it is possible (not likely) he has a worse made hand, even a pair of aces with a K, and a gutshot, or something like that, for example AKKT..

There are so many combinations of different hands for BOTH players, that an estimated 35% chance that your made hand is best at the moment, combined with an 80% chance that it's better than MP's, combined with an 80% chance that your flush draw is good, and the gutshot, make this an easy call for me. .Sure it's a gamble, and I expect lose and reload often.. But like one person said, who cares what they have, you have a lot, too, and can't really lay this down, IMO..

With the flush draw + gutshot, easy call.
Without the flush draw, a fold.
Without the gutshot draw, marginal call.

w_alloy · #9 08-15-2006, 09:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]

With the flush draw + gutshot, easy call.
Without the flush draw, a fold.
Without the gutshot draw, marginal call.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a good holdem player and very marginal omaha player who has spent a long time thinking about this hand, I really like this analysis.

joewatch · #10 08-15-2006, 09:42 AM

Give us the results and let's run the numbers.