Standard probe shove to find out where I am at?

[Fiksdal]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $49.50
BB: $50.00
UTG: $77.50
Hero (MP): $105.85
CO: $50.00
BTN: $42.80

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain seems like a donkey. I have been in a few pots during the two orbits we have been playing. In his first hand villain posts in MP, a bad reg opened to 2.25 UTG 4 handed, villain folds, I make it 7.85 from BB with KK, reg calls. Flop Q98 two tone, I lead for 12.5, reg shoves with AKo, and my kings hold.

In another hand I open from the button to 2 (my cards are irrelevant), villain calls from BB. Flop A23 two tone, villain checks, I bet 3.5, Villain raises to 7, I make it 19, villain folds.</font>

CO posts $0.50
Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.75</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.75) 7 9 8 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $11.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $103.10</font>

Thoughts?

[Gelford]

Not worth it .... good thing is, that holding two Ts you block a wee bit of the things that might have you crushed, but honestly the things you are ahead, you are more or less only raising against and the rest has you crushed.

Tho with the oesd and two blockers it looks a wee better than it usually is on such a board.

But I'd just let it go nit style. (Stove it!)

[AScorz]

I like it. You moving all in with fold equity, most likely the best hand, and a pretty damn good drawl if he happens to flip over trips, or an over pair.

[wslee00]

easy all-in imo, especially since villain is able to raise w/o the goods (as shown in your reads)

[Chomp]

This is a pretty pessimistic range, but I don't think it's unreasonable:

Board: 7c 9c 8d
Hand 0: 30.695% { ThTs }
Hand 1: 69.305% { 77+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, JTs, JTo }

A tighter range of {77+, AcKc, AcQc} bumps up our equity by 5% to 35:65. Removing {AQs, AJs, AT} makes our situtation 5% worse 30:70. Adding 56 makes little difference.

If we make it {22+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, JTs, JTo } we are 50/50 but that seems highly hightly unlikely.

And I don't think our FE over worse hands is that great tbh.

Is calling villain's mr terrible?

.....

Edit: Actually, I should have added this one given premiums JJ+ are unlikely:

Board: 7c 9c 8d
Hand 0: 22.166% { ThTs }
Hand 1: 77.834% { 99-77, AcKc, JTs, JTo }

[prodonkey]

You're missing a lot of hands he could have.. JQc, 78, 89, 9T, basically since he's a donkey he could have any flush draw.. pair plus gutter, 2 pair.

[Chomp]

Yeah, adding those get it to around 40:60.

[+EV]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, adding those get it to around 40:60.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus don't you think you should discount some of the JT type range since hero already has two tens? There are less combos left in the deck.

+EV

Actually, by defining hero's hand exactly does Poker Stove already take this info into account?

[prodonkey]

yes