blind defense with 33

[rzk]

a tight-aggressive player (no additional reads) opens in the co. you call in the bb with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

the flop comes:

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.5 sb)

question 1. what's your play here?

you actually c/c and the turn comes:

4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3.25 bb)

question 2 (main question). what's your play?

[NinaWilliams]

c/c c/c c/f is my default. C/f the turn if the TAG doesnt fire second barrells that often.

[inferno]

c/c/c/c/c/c

[Sushiglutton]

I like to CR this flop. My thinking is that c/c gives him too much benefit of position since he can check behind QJ, QT, JT, 87s on the turn. If he 3-bets I call to see if he takes the FC. If not I fold. If I have seen villain play very aggro before I just call down. from he flop.

[Bruce D]

I think we need to bet this turn don't we?

I think villian will check behind the turn for a free card too often. Problem is I hate getting raised as much as I hate giving the free card. The only card that we like to come off on the river is a 3 and even then that's questionable (villian holds A2) Too many cards on the end make calling a river bet so gross.

If we check the turn we are giving a potential 10 outter chances to beat us. If he has 10 outs (two overs and a gutter), he doesn't know that that they are all good. If he calls, he with 10 outs, it would be correct for him to do so, but he doesn't know that, and we would prefer that he folds.

edit: Just stoved some numbers, and we are still a bit of a dog...55/44 if he raises with Ax, K7o, K5s, Q8o, Q7s, J8, T8, 98, 87s

[londomollari]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we need to bet this turn don't we?


[/ QUOTE ]

This is turning your hand strength face-up, unless you balance it by weird playing your bigger hands. He is probably some of the time going to take freecards with QJ/QT/JT and going to bet with his Ace hi hands since the pot is small let him keep the lead to induce a pot.

[Bruce D]

I don't care now if villian 'knows' I have any hand. I want to win the pot now rather than face a tough decision on the end.

There are not too many river cards that I am going to be happy about calling a bet to. Are you calling a river bet when he continues to bet his A high holding? My problem is that no matter what card comes on the river, unless it's a three, I am pretty much behind when he puts in a bet unless he is bluffing. I can't know if he's bluffing, so now I have to call. At no point do we have a MUCH greater than 50 percent equity in the hand except when a 3 comes off. As cards 8 and higher come off (except for the 9 and the K) our equity starts to drop to one third and less.

When a 2 comes off we have 47% equity vs his range
When a 3 comes off we have 93% equity vs his range
When a 4 comes off we have 50% equity
When a 5 comes off we have 50% equity
When a 6 comes off we have 46% equity
When a 7 comes off we have 45% equity
When an 8 comes off we have 36% equity
When a 9 comes off we have 52% equity
When a T comes off we have 33% equity
When a J comes off we have 33% equity
When a Q comes off we have 33% equity
When a K comes off we have 53% equity and finally
When an A comes off we have 25% equity

So if this guy likes to 3 barrel bluff even with A high, we have to fold if we become calling stations or selectively call when a 4,5,9, or a K drop on the river.

I think it's much better for us if we take his initiative away anyway.

Does this sound right?

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care now if villian 'knows' I have any hand. I want to win the pot now rather than face a tough decision on the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I knew you had 33 here I have a profitable semibluff with basically my entire range.

In a vacuum there's nothing terribly wrong with your c/c, b/f line. Hell, it sounds like it's the perfect line against a robotic opponent. It's just that it's the easiest line for your opponent to guess the proper counterstrategy to.

Now if your plan is to b/c the turn and you have data/significant experience that it's profitable, then maybe you're on to something.