Blackjack Hot Streak Odds

[KipBond]

What are the approximate odds of a player profiting on average about $200/session at blackjack over the course of 20 5-hour sessions (betting $5/hand - using the cheat card for strategy; no card counting)?

I know someone who has done this. Is this like 1,000:1? 1,000,000:1?

[AaronBrown]

It depends mainly on how fast the game is being dealt, which in turn depends mainly on the number of other players at the table. But a reasonable guess for a 5-hour session is an average loss of $10 with a standard deviation of $40. Over 20 sessions that an expected loss of $200 with a standard deviation of about $200. A $200 profit over all 20 session is reasonable, about one chance in 40. But a $4,000 profit ($200 per session) is flat out impossible.

$4,000 profit means winning 800 more hands than he loses (ignoring multiple payoffs). That's 8 per hour. No one can do that over 100 hours, counting has nothing to do with it.

[KipBond]

Thanks, Aaron. So you figure about a 2% loss per hand? 20 hands per hour? How do you figure the std.dev? And the odds of a $200 profit over all 20 sessions?

I will try to pin her down to give me more reasonable #s tomorrow. My guess is that she is more apt to remember her wins, and forget her losses, making her THINK she's won this much. I've seen her on a few occasions just killing the table, though. She's a huge luckbox for sure.

[KipBond]

I went to Riverwind Casino w/ my sister this weekend. She played about 15 hours total, and was up $350 when we left. Her average bet was about $20. Usually her average is about $10/bet. She estimates she has played about 20 sessions - 5hours per session. Her average bet is $10. She said she averages being up about $100/session -- since sometimes she breaks even, sometimes she leaves with $200, sometimes more. She usually uses the strategy card (but has it mostly memorized by now anyway).

So, this is still highly improbable, right? 100-hours of play, $10/bet. Up a total of about $2000.

So, with those new numbers, what are the odds? I told her it's probably millions:1. She said she must be very lucky. I chuckled and said: definitely. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So, how lucky is she? And how do you calculate this?

[KipBond]

Using this example: http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard...obability.html

I came up with this:

# of Hands: 3000
Avg. Bet: $10
House Edge: 0.50%
Std. Dev: 1.15
Actual Win/Loss: $2,000
Actual Win/Loss (Hands): 200

Expected Win/Loss: -$150
Expected Std. Dev Hands: -62.99
Std. Dev Difference Hands: 262.99
Std. Dev Difference: -4.18

Probability: 0.00149%
Odds: 67176 :1

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
Using this example: http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard...obability.html

I came up with this:

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is probably completely wrong -- I don't know what I'm doing. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
I came up with this... Which is probably completely wrong -- I don't know what I'm doing. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... I found this calculator online:
http://www.qfit.com/calcrisk.htm

And plugged in these #s:

Player Advantage: -0.5 (%)
# Hands Played: 3000
Average Bet Size: $10
Desired Outcome: $2000

Prob. of Winning (at least that amount): 0.02%