Nextel Cup Auto Club 500 YTD 18-35, -8.81 (Cup -8.43)

Ichabod1985 · #1 02-20-2007, 09:19 PM

YTD (Cup)
Matchups: 12-16 -5.68 Units
Outrights: 1-11 -2.75 Units
Total: 12-27 -8.43 Units

YTD (Overall)
Matchups: 17-19 -3.06 Units
Outrights: 1-16 -5.75 Units
Total: 18-35 -8.81 Units

Outright
Biffle +1400 1 Unit

Ichabod1985 · #2 02-22-2007, 08:57 PM

Kurt Busch (-130) v Kahne 1 Unit
Kyle Busch (EVEN) v Hamlin 1 Unit
Newman (-105) v Sadler 1 Unit
Truex Jr (+110) v Bowyer 1 Unit

tippy · #3 02-22-2007, 09:02 PM

Ichabod, why would you take these bets prior to qualifying? You could get stuck with some real dogs here...

I took the Bowyer vs. Truex matchup last week as these guys are almost identical. This is one matchup that can be highly dependant on starting position, especially Bowyers since he is on a secondary car. Why jump the gun?

Just curious.

tippy · #4 02-22-2007, 09:05 PM

Are these are qualifying bets and not race bets???

Ichabod1985 · #5 02-22-2007, 09:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are these are qualifying bets and not race bets???

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah they're qualifying matchups so I kind of had to bet them before qualifying [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

tippy · #6 02-22-2007, 09:41 PM

My mistake. I glanced at 5dimes and thought these were race bets.

5dimes has Truex+130/Bowyer-150. I'm liking Truex at that price.

Newman +105/Sadler -125. I like Newman.

Also like Johnson -125 vs. Burton.

They have KurtB -130 over Kahne+110. Like Kurt but not quite at -130.

I think I'm going with Johnson and Truex tomorrow. I'll post again before qualifying starts.

Ichabod1985 · #7 02-23-2007, 07:48 AM

Adding-
Newman (+120) v Sadler 1 Unit
Truex Jr (+125) v Bowyer 1 Unit

bills217 · #8 02-23-2007, 11:16 AM

Cris has Kahne +550 (the favorite) to win the race, and has Kurt Busch at +2000.

How does this jive with Busch -130 vs. Kahne in qualifying? Is the value on Kahne in qualifying or Busch in the race?

I suspect you will say Busch in the race, although I am not so sure about that.

Edited to add: Pinny has Kahne at +623 to win the pole and Busch at +704. Then oddly had Busch at +2010 to win the race. What am I missing? Isn't qualifying pretty indicative of how the cars will perform in the race at a track like California?

tippy · #9 02-23-2007, 11:25 AM

I'm passing on the Truex/Bowyer matchup and the Newman/Sadler matchup. Just took a look at their Vegas testing times for the short tracks and it looks like Sadler is running pretty well already. Also, someone keeps pushing the line towards Bowyer, which is a concern.

As for the KurtB v. Kahne matchup, Kurt grabbed 2 poles at Cal last year, so that is why he is the favorite over Kahne.

I'm going with Johnson over Burton as my only qualifying play.

tippy · #10 02-23-2007, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Cris has Kahne +550 (the favorite) to win the race, and has Kurt Busch at +2000.

How does this jive with Busch -130 vs. Kahne in qualifying? Is the value on Kahne in qualifying or Busch in the race?

I suspect you will say Busch in the race, although I am not so sure about that.

Edited to add: Pinny has Kahne at +623 to win the pole and Busch at +704. Then oddly had Busch at +2010 to win the race. What am I missing? Isn't qualifying pretty indicative of how the cars will perform in the race at a track like California?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. It is nice to have a fast car, but you also have to know how to race it. Some guys are more aggressive on the short tracks, some have more experience with them and some may have slower cars, but the handling on their cars is better. Some have better crew chiefs, pit crews, engines, etc.

As an example, Kurt had the pole last year but did't do much in the race. Kenseth started 31st and won. I think the winner of the Cal race has started outside the top 15 for much of the history of the race. So no, qualifying doesn't mean much on that track.