NL50: Turned Middle set on 3FL board vs. loose opponent

[Gobias Ind.]

No notes/ database history on villain.

Previously saw him double up w/ Q,10 on a 10,7,6 board vs. overpair a-i on the flop.

I guess my real question is, "How bad is going broke here on the turn?" His range is fairly wide. Put him on a decent K. K/Q,J,10ish

I know the flop bet was dumb. I find out the same info for $6 that I do for $8. Am I better off checking behind and calling a non-sp riv for 3/4 pot ish?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $25.05
BB: $17.95
UTG: $60.20
UTG+1: $9.25
MP1: $56.90
MP2: $104.45
Hero (MP3): $48.00
CO: $19.75
BTN: $27.70

CO posts $0.50
Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, 4 folds, MP2 calls $3.00

Flop: ($8.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.25</font>, MP2 calls $8.25

Turn: ($24.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $21.00</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises all-in to $92.70</font>, Hero calls all-in for $15.25
Uncalled bet of $56.45 returned to MP2

River: ($97.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $97.25 ($3 Rake)

MP2 had Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a flush, King high) and WON (+$46.25)
Hero had J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Jacks) and LOST (-$48.00)

[M.Goodcat]

actually MP2 played his combo very well and the all in call on the turn with flush possible is a bit too much, hard to fold a set though so I would a played more passively this one. My 2 cts

[Larude]

I would raise less preflop; A raise of 7xBB with jacks over a MP2 caller is scare play and -EV I think, I mean a call in MP2 means a weak hand a lot of the time unless this guy is ultrapassive, I don't know his stats.

I think a smaller flopbet would indeed have been better, if he has a king or a big flushdraw he is calling for sure, but now he might lay down a middlepair and that is not what we want. Villain calls your big bet on the flop which narrows down his range to 44, 33, weirdly played KK, Kx (maybe x is even T if he is really bad) and a flush draw (I wouldn't expect him to have a flush draw here too often because also bad villains are throwing the weaker SC's and suited aces away after such a large flopraise.

Then the J comes off, mixed feelings; I think you have to bet in that spot you beat all but KK and an unlikely flushdraw that came there, this bet is for value. When he raises you allin it is an easy call beside the fact that you still beat a part of his range, you have the odds to draw to a house.

I don't think villain played his combo that well preflop, with KQs in MP2 I'm raising preflop near 100% of the time.

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
actually MP2 played his combo very well and the all in call on the turn with flush possible is a bit too much, hard to fold a set though so I would a played more passively this one. My 2 cts

[/ QUOTE ]

how did he play his combo very well unless he put hero specifically on AK, or AA? He was beating everything else on the flop.

[CazicT]

I don't really see any way you don't go broke given the size of the pot on the flop

I can't see check/folding. Even if you had bet less on the flop, I still think the stack is short enough that you have to go broke on the turn regardless.

But my question is, why so big of a bet PF?

Were you trying to hit a certain Stack to Pot Ratio? Are jacks strong enough to be considered an overpair type hand?

[hielo_uno]

this is a pretty standard play IMO. The flop bet size is really bad, other than that, its all good. Even if he made his flush, we are getting the right price to call pretty much here, so no worries.

[Mike Kelley]

I think the only thing you did wrong besides the super sized bet preflop was not rivering a full house.