bluff calling 100nl

[jj12]

Oppo is 24/16/2. I have seen him full pot river with a missed draw before. I know that you might disagree with flop c/r it is effectively turning my hand into bluff, but I decided that he has probably has nothing (no pair/no draw) and calling on this board would allow him to outplay me. Do you think I am good on riv more than 30%? He is repping AA/7x/Jx(with fd)

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BTN: $36.05
SB: $181.8
Hero (BB): $96.5
UTG: $329.70
MP: $46

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.5, 5 players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $3.50</font>, MP folds, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $2.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($7.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $5</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $15</font>, UTG calls $10

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($37.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

<font color="black">River:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($37.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $28</font>, Hero calls $28

[lynxman73]

Isn't he also, whether he knows it or not, repping 99+ here?

[jj12]

my read is he would bet less with 99, if he didn't bet turn. I am guessing he would have bet it to protect his hand.

[MikeyPatriot]

You're only beating A high and 33/22. If you want this pot you're going to have to bet/raise though I don't think you should in this spot.

[jj12]

well we are beating 56, T9 (if he's stupid enough to bet it, some people do) and any flush draw other than Jx fd. Question is are those hands over 30% of his range.

[Kurtiii]

I think he is valuebetting an 8 or 99+ close to 90% in this spot. At least this is my experience.

anyone leading this flop btw. ? It´s a cheaper way to find out if 44 is good, and imo that´s the only thing we wanna know.

[jj12]

as I said I have a read on the player. He isn't value betting a pair below J this big. He probably isn't checking behind turn with KK or less, but he would check turn with draw and bet full pot on river. All I am saying that based on my read his play is consistent with AA, KK(maybe), 7x and Jx and busted flush draw or str8 draw.