Trouble with Pocket Aces (limit O8), OOP, 2 opponents

[yukoncpa]

Normally I don’t overvalue aces and I don’t tend to get in any trouble with them, but this hand came up recently:

I’m on big blind with AA68o, 6 handed, UTG limps, middle position calls, everyone else including the little blind folds, I rap pat. 3 players, I’m OOP. No raise before flop.

Flop is KJ2 with two suits, I bet, both players call ( they are both calling stations ).

Turn is 9, no flush possible , I bet, UTG folds, MP calls. Heads up.

River is 3. I check, he bets, I call.

Was I too optimistic with bare aces? Any better way to play this? Would it have been better to check the flop and see what these players do? If played that way, what happens if 1st player also checks, then last player bets, should I then check raise?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Was I too optimistic with bare aces?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Yukon CPA. I don't know. You also had a chance at low, not a great chance, but enough to make your hand a fairly good heads-up hand before the flop.
[ QUOTE ]
Any better way to play this?

[/ QUOTE ]A better way is not obvious to me.
[ QUOTE ]
Would it have been better to check the flop and see what these players do?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think so. I like your flop bet. This is a flop that might not fit anyone, and if so, your flop bet might steal the pot or if not, then maybe a continuation bet after a bricky looking turn might take the pot for you. (As it happened, that didn't work this time).
[ QUOTE ]
If played that way, what happens if 1st player also checks, then last player bets, should I then check raise?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. That gives you a better chance of getting heads-up.

I think you want to get heads up as soon as possible with aces. But then you still may need help from the board, and you simply didn't get any here.

Buzz

[yukoncpa]

Hi Buzz, or anyone out there.

I tend, on intuition, to think that given that 2 opponents like a flop of KJ2 for whatever reason (they’re calling stations ), that a pair of Aces, as given in my OP plays better then bottom two pair. Am I correct in thinking this? I’m more afraid to fire a second barrel on the turn with bottom 2 pair, so therefore, with that type of hand, I usually don’t even bet the flop, but rather check and see how my opponents like it. I guess, I perceive I have more outs to catch up if I’m behind with my Aces, and that Aces aren’t far behind bottom 2 pair if I’m ahead.

In other words, what plays better - given that 2 opponents call the flop: Final board KJ293
Hand 1 - AA68 or
Hand 2 - AJ28

[RobNottsUk]

If it's a calling station, who'll call with 1 pair, then you should be betting the river into them. If it's one who will bet with str8 or 2 pair, check/calling gives them a free showdown when they lose, and a bet when they're winning.

As is, I think check/fold is probably the best play, against most weak calling type players, because on the river you just have 1 pair, and you got called on turn with 3-str8 possible, and then a prime Lo card came. Hard to see how you'ld not see 2 pair or better on the river.

The only real draw got there or made 2 pair, so I'd fold.

[RobNottsUk]

[ QUOTE ]
given that 2 opponents like a flop of KJ2 for whatever reason (they’re calling stations ), that a pair of Aces, as given in my OP plays better then bottom two pair. Am I correct in thinking this?

[/ QUOTE ]
Bottom 2 pair is not worth a lot, without good backup draws (which fold out the Hi hands that would normally beat you). I just tried it on a Hi flop, as BB when SB made a possible 'bluff' in unraised pot, filled up on the river 5's full J's, and called to see top set Q's on flop. At least I got a free card, to save 1/2 bet. I don't think that's very unusual even in 3 or 4 way pot. Seem like a way to fritter away chips, being table policeman.

Against 2 calling stations, I'd consider not betting the flop, but betting the turn (delayed continuation bet) if they check to you. They're going to auto-call on flops, and outdraw you too often, effectively you'll be bluffing them too frequently.

If you have draw and they check turn then you can consider a free card, but with weak made hand you'll not know where you are and making desperation bets. They're most likely to fold on the river, when their hand has no chance to improve. That's the best time to steal a pot or two, from them.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend, on intuition, to think that given that 2 opponents like a flop of KJ2 for whatever reason (they’re calling stations ), that a pair of Aces, as given in my OP plays better then bottom two pair. Am I correct in thinking this?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Yukon CPA - No. You're wrong.

Bottom two pair is horrid in a full game, but not when only three of you see the flop. Missed aces is worse than bottom two pairs when only three of you see the flop.

On top of that, in this case Villain holds one of your two missing aces. After this flop, you only win if<ul type="square">• the board gets an ace (one out) without a deuce or jack, or
• the board pairs on kings (three outs) and not on deuces or jacks,
• makes a runner-runner pair on the turn and river (worth about 2 outs)[/list]To estimate how many outs the runner-runner pair is worth, reason this way:<ul type="square">There are 7*6+3+1=46 ways the board can make a fresh pair on the turn+river, thus 944 to 46 is about 20 to 1. (think about 1000 to 50 to get to 20 to 1 fast). If the odds against an ace are about forty to one (from 44 to 1) and the odds against a fresh runner-runner pair on the turn and river are about twenty to one, then a runner-runner pair must be worth about two outs.

If you're wondering where the 944 came from, notice that it is what we have to add to 46 to make 990.[/list]At any rate, when all is said and done, Hero with a bare pair of aces has about six outs after this flop.

That's very crude, but someone recently said they thought 990 was too big, and the two-out runner-runner-pair approximation is what I'd use if I wanted to use 45 after the flop.

Just to keep things better in perspective, runner-runner-flush, in other words a back-door flush-draw, is worth about one out.

So figure Hero has 6 outs (out of 45) and Villain has all the rest (39).

Gadzooks, Villain is ahead by between six and seven to one. HUGE.

This is not to say that bottom two pairs is a good flop in a full, loose game. It is not. But you're playing six max and then only three of you see the flop. Under these circumstances, bottom two pairs looks much better than in a full game when five or six of you see the flop.

Missed aces is also better when only three of you see the flop, just not as much better as bottom two pairs.

Buzz

[RobNottsUk]

Heads up, yes you're very likely to have best hand.

In a loose low stakes Online game, most pots are 4 or 5-way.

The problem I see with bottom 2 pair, is that you are now unlikely to have the best Lo draw. When a loose-passive player bets, he has at least a set. It's only the trickier Bluffy-Fish who you catch semi-bluffing or betting top pair, and unfortunately they run you into real hands too often, and even if you're best you'll be outdrawn very often.

When I try promo-raise to make b'door Lo good and increase chances of winning with 2 pair, basically you don't fold out the hands you want to, they perceive some slim chance of taking 1/2 the pot and call. So you gain nothing from your fine aggressive play, you just juiced up the pot for the 'best hand'.

With AAWL, there's often unexpected Hi river outs or b'door draws, as well as the Lo draw.

If you catch bottom 2 with A256 on a K65 flop, then your hand is indeed stronger than AA2J.

But I still find, that when that board pairs and you fill up, with flopped bottom 2, that is when the calling stations find a river fold and you don't get paid. So the hand just is much less profitable, unless you can fold out ppl than you'ld expect.

Perhaps the OP to is finding that AA2x or AA3x is practically playing better because you're more likely to have nut Hi draws to backup the Lo.

Hope that makes some kind of sense, am interested to see other takes on this.