WSOP Prop Bet

Howard Treesong · #1 07-08-2007, 05:15 PM

I get to pick 85 runners after all four day ones are complete. I get the money if any of my runners make the final table and 3x if I pick the winner. It's a small bet, totally friendly, that I made on the phone just now while doing four other things. I roughed out that 1/3 of a 6000-person field remains at the end of day one, and the chipleaders are 3x par. On that totally superficial analysis, it's about even money. Discuss.

Edited to fix typo in header.

shaniac · #2 07-08-2007, 07:06 PM

you get to choose 85 runners? Think you might be a favorite.

Howard Treesong · #3 07-08-2007, 11:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you get to choose 85 runners? Think you might be a favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Plan is to largely go with chip counts, although I'm a sucker for people I know just below that level.

DannyOcean_ · #4 07-08-2007, 11:48 PM

I have no idea whether this is +EV or not, but i do know one thing.

This was a fantastic bet to place. What will happen is that with 40 or 50 people left, you will have like a couple people left and you will rail the [censored] out of them. Your experience watching the rest of the WSOP will be like 10x as fun as it would have been otherwise. Even if it's -EV, this bet is pretty awesome.

Howard Treesong · #5 07-09-2007, 12:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea whether this is +EV or not, but i do know one thing.

This was a fantastic bet to place. What will happen is that with 40 or 50 people left, you will have like a couple people left and you will rail the [censored] out of them. Your experience watching the rest of the WSOP will be like 10x as fun as it would have been otherwise. Even if it's -EV, this bet is pretty awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have put your finger on the pulse of my personality, sir.

#6 07-09-2007, 12:32 AM

cbloom · #7 07-09-2007, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]

This was a fantastic bet to place. What will happen is that with 40 or 50 people left, you will have like a couple people left and you will rail the [censored] out of them. Your experience watching the rest of the WSOP will be like 10x as fun as it would have been otherwise. Even if it's -EV, this bet is pretty awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT and this is why so many people lose so much money betting sports. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

2461Badugi · #8 07-09-2007, 12:42 AM

Should you take ZJ for hedge value?

Dan. · #9 07-09-2007, 12:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Should you take ZJ for hedge value?

[/ QUOTE ]

nh.

Your Mom · #10 07-09-2007, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Should you take ZJ for hedge value?

[/ QUOTE ]

How many of his 85 would ZJ count for?