Odds concerning steal attempts.

[Vincent Leef]

100/200 NL Hold 'em, 7 handed. I am in 5th position (button) with AK. Two limpers and I raise to 1000, the SB folds and the BB re-raises to 23600, the limpers fold and I call the re-raise. When the BB puts in the over-bet re-raise I narrow his potential holdings to the following 7 hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ. Figuring I am only in really bad shape against AA, I decided to call. When I look back on the hand I think I should have just folded it pre-flop but my question is concerning the action post-flop.

The flop: 4Q4. Pot size: 47700. The BB checks, and I go all-in effectively forcing him to go all-in for his last 25020. He calls and shows AA. I fail to catch running kings and he wins the hand.

My logic: He is going to call 57% of the time with AA, KK, QQ, AQ; and fold 43% of the time with JJ, TT, and AK. I am risking 25020 to win 47700 (2 to 1 / 33%).

Should I make this bet as a steal attempt if I believe my opponent will fold more the 33% of the time, or are my assesments incorrect?

[Vincent Leef]

Are the odds that the pot is offering me 1 to 1? Should I make this bet as a steal attempt only if I believe my opponent will fold more than 52% of the time?

[alanbrown]

your odds are only correct if you're right about his behaviour. If he understands your logic then he might very well call with JJ or TT, and if he does so half the time, then your flop push was an error.

And with only half the pot left to bet he'll be looking you up a lot of the time with JJ I think, though I may be wrong.

[Vincent Leef]

Let's assume that he does not understand my logic and interprets my bet as strength (AQ, KQ, etc.) thus he will fold JJ, TT and AK.

What I was really intersted in is whether or not my assesment is correct concerning how often my opponent needs to fold to make this play profitable.

[HERE_2_gamble_]

His range is never this wide

[LoVErBuOY]

[ QUOTE ]
100/200 NL Hold 'em, 7 handed. I am in 5th position (button) with AK. Two limpers and I raise to 1000, the SB folds and the BB re-raises to 23600 , the limpers fold and I call the re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[iRockhoes1]

So, you raise 1000, and he raises half the state of kansas, and you make the call assuming hes going to fold the other half if the nightmare board of Q44 hits?

[wuddacooler]

I have a feeling the well concealed sarcasm in the post above me won't be sensed by Mr. Leef. Sort of the same way Vincent perceived the bb's reraise of 25x as the sign of suited connectors, thus telling us all that AK high should take a flop and then let him shove with 7high after the flop brings blanks...wait this isn't how it played out?

[Vincent Leef]

Just answer the question I asked or don't reply. Thank you.

[Kyle]

screen name?