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#1
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villain is loose pf and only double barrels with top pair or overpair
.5/1 Hero (CO): 200 villain (MP): 165 hero deal Jc8s utg fols, villain raises to 4, hero calls, rest fold flop: 2d4c8c pot: 10 villain leads for 7, hero calls turn: 8d pot: 24 villain leads 13(bet sizing leads me to believe he has JJ or TT as he would have bet larger with QQ-AA), hero? I think there are a couple acceptable lines what is the best one tho? His bet looks like he does not want to call a large raise on the turn, I thought about raising very small and v betting river like 1/3-1/2 pot, however if I smooth call here and river blanks(fluhses dont complete and A or K doesnt hit) I'm pretty sure I can get his whole stack as it looks like I've missed a draw and am trying to steal the pot when he vbets the river. Are there way too many cards that can kill my action, or should I smooth call for the chance to stack him which I think is almost a definite if everything blanks. |
#2
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I call this and rep the missed flushdraw on the river.
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#3
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with the flush draws and aces or kings, there are roughly 24 outs to kill my action, so I guess I'm about 52% to get my ideal scenario. 50% of the time I think I can stack him, the other 50% I get a 1/3 pot vbet on the river. I called the turn planning to stack him on a blank.
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#4
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if you think you have a way to stack him, go for it...your plan to call then raise the river is probably what i would try too....
trips are more risky than a set though--many villain are more cautious with a paired board... 10 clubs left out of the 46 in the pack...they kill your action...if he is paired 2 will give him a winner and take your stack...34 let you get the rest of his stack put your reads to the test, the odds seem to be there if you are right...lets see if the villain will give up when you play back on the river correction--you noted A or K will kill action, so another 6 more cards don't help you...28 out of 46 cards work, 2 work against, 16 freeze action...he has over 100 left in his stack, so you ev is pretty good... |
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