Iggy's Week 5 NCAA Picks

[iggymcfly]

YTD: 20-26-1, -1.678 units

I did finish up for the year last year with about a 53% winning percentage, so you can probably trust my picks to be very slightly +EV as long as you're not taking bad prices, even with the losing record this year. Also, my 2 unit and larger picks have been running very hot this season.

On to the picks:

Air Force +2.5 at Navy (Risk 2u to win 2.04u)
Really like Air Force here. Or to be more exact, really like betting against Navy. The Middies are still cruising off their reputation last year, but they're nowhere near as good. They only have 3 starters back on defense, and that defense has been miserable this year, giving up 449 yards and 34 points per game vs. Temple, Rutgers, Ball State, and Duke. They're not improving either as they had their worst performance against the Blue Devils last week, giving up 500 yards in a 46-43 victory.

Against three opponents significantly worse than Air Force this year, Navy has won by 11, lost by 3, and won by 3. Meanwhile, Air Force has played surprisingly well. They beat Utah on the road and TCU at home (both much better teams than Navy) before getting blown out by BYU. Based largely on the performance this season, Sagarin says Air Force should be a 2 point favorite, even on the road.

Does Navy at least have favorable matchups to counteract this edge? Not really. It's true that Navy's pass defense has given up a lot more yards than their run defense and Air Force is a running team. However, the run defense has still been plenty bad, giving up 262 yards to Ball State and 210 to Rutgers and ranking 70th in the country despite a weakj schedule.

On the other side of the ball, the matchups are very favorable for Air Force. Navy runs the ball better and passes it worse than anyone in FCS, and run defense has been a strength for Air Force. They rank 28th in the country giving up less than 100 yards per game and their only bad game (against BYU) happened because the Cougars tore them up through the air, passing for 8.9 YPA and only rushing for 3.6 YPA. All in all, I'd say that the matchups are slightly favorable for Air Force and should make them more of a favorite than power ratings would suggest. Not only do I think the wrong team is getting the points here, I think Air Force should probably be favored by 4-6 points. The only reason this is a 2 unit play and not a larger one is that Air Force is kind of an unknown quantity this early in the year, having 1 bad performance after 2 bad ones when they weren't projected to have a very good season, and because I don't trust my mid-major predictions as much as I do for the major conferences I follow more closely.

Note: More picks will be coming later, but I'm not going to list them until I get them completely matched on Matchbook. There's one I've been talking about quite a bit in the early lines thread that will definitely be my POTW though.

[iggymcfly]

<u>West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)</u>
This would be that POTW I was talking about. I didn't get the very best price here in terms of juice, but I'm legitimately scared that Dr. Bob's going to hop on this tomorrow and drive the line way down.

Anyway, if you use 3 points for home advantage, Sagarin has the Mountaineers favored by 6.5 here, so the line wouldn't appear to be too far off. However, I think this is a case where using a constant for home advantage is a mistake. USF is 34-8 at home and 15-21 away SU the last 7 years and 16-10 ATS at home vs. 17-14 ATS away over the same period. This is a team that gets more out of their crowd than most. Factor in that it's a night game and possibly USF's most important home game ever, and the fans and players are going to be jacked up. I think it was MyTurn who had research to show that home advantage means more for closely matched teams, especially slight dogs, and with all those factors working together, home advantage is going to be worth more like 5 points. It would be even higher, but WVU tends to play well on the road and covers spreads there better than they do at home.

Meanwhile, the matchups are good for USF too. Their defense has been fantastic against both the run and the pass this year which is more important than you think. While WVU tends to run the ball a lot when able, this is mainly due to the fact that they're often leading and other teams can't stop them. They actually rank 10th in passing efficiency, and Pat White is more than capable as a pocket passer if the running game bogs down. Well, I think it will and when it does, USF should be able to stop the pass too. Last year, with both Slaton and White in the lineup, USF held the Mountaineers to 3.6 ypc and return 7 starters on that side of the ball this year. Their losses in the linebacking corps should be countered by WVU's losses on the O-line and the talent should be about even to where it was last year on that side of the ball.

On the other side of the ball, USF returns 9 starters from last year's team including QB Matt Grothe and 3 of the top 3 receivers. That passing attack was 22/30 for 279 vs. West Virginia last year, and should enjoy similar success this game as the Mountaineer secondary has continued to look vulnerable, giving up 245 yards to Western Michigan and 266 to Marshall.

Still the Bulls attack isn't really explosive and while they'll put up some points, they can't win a shootout. They did have a little bit of a break last season as West Virginia had just found out that they couldn't go to the Orange Bowl when Rutgers lost to Cincy and they had to be disappointed. The Mountaineers are still the better team and I expect them to pull out the victory. If I was forecasting, I'd say 28-27 which should leave a very healthy edge for the Bulls to cover the spread.

Oh, last but not least, this game definitely passes the BSP pundit test. I was playing some live 2/5 NL on Monday and people were talking about who'd win the national title and how good WVU was. (Note: I live thousands of miles from West Virginia.) I mentioned how they'd have a tough game against USF, and someone said "wonder what the line will be on that one". I said it was 7, and two people registered audible surprise that the line was that low. With how many "sharps" appear to be on USF, the only reason I can think of that the line's only dropped a half a point is either that there are squares already on WVU or that there are people betting WVU with the express intent of middling it when the squares get a hold of the line. I definitely like USF in this one.


<u>Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)</u>
Liked CFN's analysis here on the matchups favoring MSU, and just generally think that it will be hard for South Carolina to focus here after losing a huge game to LSU and losing their defensive leader for the season in Jasper Brinkley.

Also, Mississippi State's still a little bit underrated due to the opener vs. LSU where they turned it over 7 times. They look to be a legit Top 40 team and should be able to compete with the Gamecocks. I think the public's underrating the Bulldogs and will be happy to take SC giving less than 2 TDs.

[Rococo]

[ QUOTE ]
<u>West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)</u>
This would be that POTW I was talking about. I didn't get the very best price here in terms of juice, but I'm legitimately scared that Dr. Bob's going to hop on this tomorrow and drive the line way down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is Dr. Bob really moving the lines?

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<u>West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)</u>
This would be that POTW I was talking about. I didn't get the very best price here in terms of juice, but I'm legitimately scared that Dr. Bob's going to hop on this tomorrow and drive the line way down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is Dr. Bob really moving the lines?

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Yeah. A lot. Hopefully he'll move it to 3-4 and I'll have an awesome middle.

BTW, I have basically all the plays that everyone else in the forum has this week, only at the very best price. Yay for me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]

Also, Mississippi State's still a little bit underrated due to the opener vs. LSU where they turned it over 7 times. They look to be a legit Top 40 team and should be able to compete with the Gamecocks. I think the public's underrating the Bulldogs and will be happy to take SC giving less than 2 TDs.

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I basically agree with your analysis here, but if Mississippi State really is a legit Top 40 team, then the 2007 SEC is the best conference in the history of college football.

Also, they would win the ACC.

[iggymcfly]

OK, that's about enough conference homerism out of you, mister. Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Miami are all legitimate Top 40 teams and all are better than Mississippi State. Also, as good as the SEC is this year, the Pac-Ten is right there neck-and-neck with them. I'd only leave three teams from either league out of the Top 40. Arizona, WSU, and Stanford from the Pac and Auburn, Ole Miss, and Vandy from the SEC.

As for Dr. Bob, I can't see him moving the line all the way to 4, but it could easily go to 5.5 or 6 if he makes USF a best bet.

[iggymcfly]

<u>Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin (Risk 1u to win 0.99u)</u>
FWIW, I'm not real confident on this pick and wouldn't necessarily advise anyone to follow it. The matchups actually favor Wisconsin a little bit as they have the run D to slow down the Spartans significantly.

The only reason I'm on MSU here is that the Badgers have had a lot of difficulty with worse opponents than MSU this year and the Spartans defense is good enough to keep this game low-scoring which will make it difficult for Wisconsin to cover any decent spread. This could easily be something like a 20-14 margin in favor of the Badgers.

[pirateboy]

Keep in mind that Michigan State, statistically, has a better offense AND defense than Wisconsin.

[MicroBob]

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Keep in mind that Michigan State, statistically, has a better offense AND defense than Wisconsin.

[/ QUOTE ]


Tougher schedule for their wins and spectacular stats:
UAB, BG and ND
or
UNLV, Citadel and WSU???

Wow, does the Big10 suck or what??

[iggymcfly]

<u>Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)</u>
Only favorite I'm on all week. Basically, Minnesota's defense is terrible and Ohio State will be able to score as many points as they like before they get bored and stop trying. On the year, Minnesota's given up 32, 35, 42, and 45 to the likes of Bowling Green, Miami(OH), FAU, and Purdue. They're not fluke points either as the Gophers' total defense ranks 119th. Even if the Buckeyes don't try to run the score up (which they won't with Tressel), they should be able to at least get into the 40s.

The Gophers have done fairly decently on offense, but switching from defenses struggling to find a pulse to OSU who's total defense ranks 3rd in the country is going to be quite a shock. Last year, OSU shut out the Gophers and Minnesota lost about the same talent above replacement level that the Buckeyes did. I really can't imagine how the Buckeyes don't blow out Minny here.