3-6-12 LIVE with AA. Did my turn raise cost me a bet on the river?

[zuluking]

3-6-12 LIVE hand last night at Cypress Bayou Casino. The table is a dream, loose/passive with 5 little old ladies playing and 7-8 seeing every flop. But on this hand, none of that mattered. This hand stuck in my craw all night because I HATE missing bets, and I'm wondering if I missed one here. I turn to the 2+2 masses to decide. WARNING: This is NOT a very exciting hand.

I'm on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and its folded to me? WTF? I raise, the SB folds, and BB calls. BB is typical old retired man who plays ultra tight but will also "protect" his blind. He also telegraphs his intentions ALOT.

Flop is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Old man bets out, I call.

Turn is K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Old man bets out again, clearly happy with the board. I insta-put him on K9 sooted, or K8 sooted.

I've been playing with this guy for several hours and have observed that if he thinks he has the goods, he'll pop it for 12 on the river. So I have a choice to make, raise it here, hoping he'll pop it back, or call and hope he bets 12 and pop him on the river. But if I raise the turn, he might get scared, call and check/call the river. I decide to raise the turn, he calls, check/calls my 12 river bet, and flashes K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as he mucks.

Not an exciting hand, but should I have waited til the river?

[HoneyBadger]

I'd raise it on the turn, he will call to draw which he might not on the river. Also, you have to charge him to draw. But... I'd also raise it on the flop, or is he the type that would instantly fold without an ace then? 89s is not a nice board...very draw heavy, get the money in when you're ahead. Imho.

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
But... I'd also raise it on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally I would, but I was head-up and way ahead against a player whom I can outplay 99 times out of 100.

[Hoss1193]

Normally I'd raise earlier, but I like the argument for calling flop/turn and raising the river (or betting if he checks). Elderly gent's betting pattern doesn't indicate a draw (he doesn't sound like the kind of player who'd semi-bluff a flush or straight draw 2 streets in succession); he's got a made hand. I'd continue to give him the free cards; anything that hits him is going to hit you even harder.

The counter-argument might be that you want to hit him for a raise on the turn, when he's still got a card to come...he might be more willing to call your raise if he thinks he has outs to beat you (although in this case turns out he was drawing dead).

So...probably a close decision. I don't think you made a mistake.

Interesting to me that he laid down 2 pair to your turn raise...that's a pretty tough fold even for a Mr Uber-tight.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you made a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting to me that he laid down 2 pair to your turn raise...that's a pretty tough fold even for a Mr Uber-tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he called my turn raise, and then check/called my 12 river bet.

[HoneyBadger]

I think it would be a mistake not to raise the turn. He might not bet the river if say a 3rd club hits. And even if he would, are you still raising him?

[Hoss1193]

Duh...looks like I completely misread an entire paragraph of your OP. Wow, that lends some credibility to my feedback, huh?

I still stand by what I said though; close decision either way. And it sounds like you weren't going to get more than 3BB combined on the turn/river regardless of which street you chose to raise.

I'm humbly chastised and promise to read posts more closely before I decide to mouth off. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]