Flush 200bb deep facing a push

bunga · #1 10-15-2006, 04:30 PM

Villian seems laggy in this hand. Only about 50 hands played at the table so far. I have a hard time calling or even folding this without any stats whatsoever.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($1646.60)
SB ($400)
BB ($799)
UTG ($474)
MP ($400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $16, Hero calls $16, 1 fold, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $24, MP folds, Hero raises to $80, BB raises to $783

Hero?

smartalecc5 · #2 10-15-2006, 04:46 PM

I think you gotta call here b/c he can be doing this with 4xXx, AsAx, and KsKx.

It seems like he doesn't really want a call (unless hes on that Nth level where he knows you're thinking that??)

Slider · #3 10-15-2006, 04:50 PM

Smells like Settishigng

soah · #4 10-15-2006, 04:50 PM

There are virtually no flushes that you beat, and lots that beat you... you're either 0% to win or ~65ish, very rarely a huge favorite. I don't mind a fold here unless we've seen this guy make similar plays already.

bunga · #5 10-15-2006, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There are virtually no flushes that you beat, and lots that beat you... you're either 0% to win or ~65ish, very rarely a huge favorite. I don't mind a fold here unless we've seen this guy make similar plays already.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the chances of me having a better flush than him is greater than the chances of having a worse flush than him. If he is bigger wouldn't he reraise to to 250 or so being so deep. This screams set or lower flush..."I don't want another spade up there"

Unless he is so far inside my brain that he knows that I will think this. I think this is +ev.

Requin · #6 10-15-2006, 05:05 PM

97 is the only smaller flush than yours that makes sense, if he has a flush its probably beating you. I think you can fold here being this deep.

soah · #7 10-15-2006, 05:06 PM

What lower flushes do you expect him to have which aren't straight flushes? 97s, 94s, 92s, 72s, did I miss any?

bunga · #8 10-15-2006, 05:07 PM

good point. It just seems like such a strange line with nuts or close to it.

HedonismBot · #9 10-15-2006, 05:39 PM

This isn't even a question, insta-fold

j_allstar · #10 10-15-2006, 06:31 PM

insta-fold?? how bout we put bb on a hand first?

Hands he could have include

1. some sort of J-high or Q-high flush (somewhat likely)
2. straight flush (not very likely)
3. slowplayed AsAx or KsKx (depends on opponet)
4. Xx4s (depends on opponet)
5. AsXs (depends on opponet)
6. sets
7. the nuts (i dont see him playing them this way)

I think given villian is laggy and his line makes little sense with a monster (AKA bigger flush) this leans toward a call... i would like to see if people agree with my analysis though