Top set wet board...river play?

[mr ladrao]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter
Hero has been running 21/16/2 and villain 32/2/1 over 53 hands. On flop/turn I was betting for value vs this villain (who had been calling down light) as well as trying to protect against draws. How would you play the river? Would you check behind? Push to the min-checkraise? Call or Fold and why? Comments on all streets is appreciated. Thanks guys...

BTN: $58.60
SB: $48.65
BB: $62.15
Hero (UTG): $55.40
MP: $35.70
CO: $97.75

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 4 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [ J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, BB calls $7

River: ($23.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [ 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $13</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $26</font>, Hero????

[Pokey]

On this river I bet for value and I three-bet all-in. I simply don't believe that villain has the straight; two-pair, AK, and undersets are far more likely combinations. Can we really give villain credit for T9 on this board, considering that he called the flop bet? Maybe T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but that's the only one. AT seems similarly unlikely. However, QQ/66 are strong possibilities (phear my slowplay!). AA is always possible against a doofus. Even JJ/55 are vague possibilities (JJ much more than 55). It's always theoretically possible that he's got [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on a desperation bluff, though that won't matter when you push, since it's folding to any raise.

So:

We're afraid of AT and T9. Considering the action in the hand, I've got to discount these fairly heavily; call them 16 outs together.

We're ahead of AA (six combos), QQ (three combos), 66 (three combos), AK (four combos), AQ (twelve combos), KQ (three combos), QJ (nine combos), and KJ (three combos). That's 43 hands we beat. Even discounting them severely as being unlikely or oddly played, we're still ahead of most of his range.

I push for value and expect to get called by a weaker hand more often than I'm called by a stronger hand. It's rolling the dice, but I think the dice are loaded in my favor.