Stabbing with Air

[KStV]

I am a novice working on developing a tight/aggressive game. When I completely miss a flop, I don't seem to have very good instincts as to when and how I should try to steal the pot. I'd like to start making those decisions more systematically and would appreciate any insights/advice.

The basic concepts I think I understand are:
--This is highly read dependent (i.e. is Villain likely to fold?)
--This is increasingly (perhaps exponentially?) more difficult to do with each additional villain in the hand.

These have been helpful guideposts, but I'd like to take my thought process in these situations to the next level. I am interested mainly in situations in which there is almost no bet I would call and very little reason for me to remain in the hand.

I understand that the variables here are endless, so I'd like to think about four situations and allow the analysis to bring out other details:

HALF-DEAD PAINT
--Hero holds: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
--FLOP: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BACKDOOR IS LOCKED:
--Hero holds: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
--FLOP: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

NOTHING IN THE MINE:
Hero holds: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
--Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

RAGFEST
--Hero holds: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
--FLOP: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

When is it a good investment to try to buy the pot? When is it likely to be just a charitable donation to the table?

[PantsOnFire]

There is basically too much to say about this subject in a post on a forum. Here are some basic thoughts I have on this subject.

1. Yes, this is read dependent. It is basically a bluff so all the guidelines for bluffing apply. Don't bluff calling stations or into multiple opponents. Also, don't underestimate what your oppenents think of you. Some players have credibility, some do not.

2. Select the least amount that you feel will do the job. This amount should be related to your previous value bets.

3. The texture of the flop is very important. This is also related to whether this is a raised pot or an unraised pot. And if you are the one raising, you can represent a hand that matches a good flop. If you are the one calling, you can scare high cards by betting into a low flop. A paired flop is less likely to have hit somebody. A wet flop may likely get callers from players on a draw.

4. If you have a draw or a small piece of a flop, you might consider seeing another card rather than stealing. If you have no pair, no draw, no hope, then maybe on shot at a steal is worth it and you will give up after that.

5. Having position is a great benefit. You usually only have to worry about chronic checkraisers, tricky players or calling stations. Most other players are simply saying "take the pot" when they check. If you have the cojones, sometimes this will take a flop and a turn bet since some players like to "float" a call on the flop (i.e. call to see what you are up to).

This will come much easier with experience. You will develop a sense of the table dynamics. In a loose, fun game, people want to play and you won't be able to steal much. In a tighter game, orphaned pots will become more apparent and you can go at them a lot more often.

I think the most success you will achieve in pot stealing is when you are heads up and you have a good read on your opponent. And also, you have a good, tight table image.

[KStV]

Thanks for your reply. I guess my question is overbroad, but maybe we can drill down a bit.

As I understand your post, this is a move that relies heavily on the narrative of the hand and table image. So in the abstract, we have-->

PLUS FACTORS
--table credibility
--no more than 1 or 2 villains
--no calling stations
--post-flop bet coheres with the flop and the pre-flop action
--post-flop bet is properly calibrated
--having position

MINUS FACTORS
--been caught stealing or perceived as loose
--multiple villains
--villain is a calling station
--post-flop bet doesn't match pre-flop action combined with flop
--size of post-flop bet is suspicious
--being out of position

Are there other plus or minus factors?

Two other ideas in your post really stood out to me. First, when you say your bluff bet should be "related to" your previous value bets - what is the relationship? Are you trying to make your bluff look exactly like a value bet, or do you ratchet it up or down by some small factor?

Second is the issue of "float calls". I'm getting these a lot and better players are murdering me with them. As shaky as my decisionmaking has been with respect to my post-flop bluffs, my play after the bluff gets called has been even worse. It seems that whenever I fire a second bluff after the turn, villain has the goods. If I try to check it down, villain bets some amount that will make me look like an asshat whether I call it or lay them down.

[Sir Folds A Lot]

I'd say you could play the ragfest with a 2-3x blind bet if all the plus factors are there and none of the minus factors are there. If your opponent is calling your bet and then raising your check, chances are he's got something, and since you don't, don't put more chips into a pot just cause you got caught. Pride is a horible thing to have at a table. Just include a few checks on the turn when you have the nuts, so it looks like standard play and not a big tell.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your reply. I guess my question is overbroad, but maybe we can drill down a bit.

As I understand your post, this is a move that relies heavily on the narrative of the hand and table image. So in the abstract, we have-->

PLUS FACTORS
--table credibility
--no more than 1 or 2 villains
--no calling stations
--post-flop bet coheres with the flop and the pre-flop action
--post-flop bet is properly calibrated
--having position

MINUS FACTORS
--been caught stealing or perceived as loose
--multiple villains
--villain is a calling station
--post-flop bet doesn't match pre-flop action combined with flop
--size of post-flop bet is suspicious
--being out of position

Are there other plus or minus factors?

Two other ideas in your post really stood out to me. First, when you say your bluff bet should be "related to" your previous value bets - what is the relationship? Are you trying to make your bluff look exactly like a value bet, or do you ratchet it up or down by some small factor?

Second is the issue of "float calls". I'm getting these a lot and better players are murdering me with them. As shaky as my decisionmaking has been with respect to my post-flop bluffs, my play after the bluff gets called has been even worse. It seems that whenever I fire a second bluff after the turn, villain has the goods. If I try to check it down, villain bets some amount that will make me look like an asshat whether I call it or lay them down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Those plus and minus factors look good.

When I was talking about "related" bet sizes I meant this. You have to go with what is fresh in everybody's mind. For example, if a few hands ago, you made a pot bet on the flop a 2/3 pot bet on the turn and showed down a strong hand, people are going to remember that (i.e. it was strong pf and flop). So now your steal should look the same. If you come out with a 1/2 pot bet on the flop, people don't even really need to be that observant. Some players will subconsiously find it suspicious. Conversely, if you get a good made hand again, now bet 1/2 since you want to work with that suspicion.

So when I say "related", I mean that you have to remember what you have recently shown down and go down a path that will make them; a) believe you if you are trying to steal or b) not believe you when you are value betting.

There are two issues I can think of to address you question about "float" calls by villain. You can't cbet to steal at a 100% rate into a villain like this. You need to mix it up. And that also means checking some hands where you hit. You will probably notice that these types of calls occur much more often when you are OOP since stealing from you is a lot eaiser by villain when he position on you. So OOP mix checking and betting both air and made flops. Checkraise once and awhile with mostly made hands be sometimes air. Vary your cbet into a floater. He may get suspicious when you do this. This is another type of "related" bet size. If you cbet 1/2, get called and then give up, remember that. Next time cbet 3/4 pot (and don't forget to value bet 1/2 pot either. Keep in mind what is fresh in his mind that you did last).

Firing second bullets with air should be used very sparingly. Obviously, the second bullet is a lot more expensive than the first so you need a much better success rate. Guy that chase draws or calling stations are not good candidates. Guys who float call a lot are very good candidates.

Another method is to check the flop and then fire on the turn. This cost the same as firing on the flop and sometimes is more successful. However, it helps if you have shown you can check a made hand on the flop to trap. Remember what you have shown down.

Last point. You talk about looking like an asshat when calling a potential bluff and losing to a good hand. If the pot is fairly small and it wont cost you much, go ahead and call and don't worry about looking like an asshat. Remember two things about this. If you snap off a bluff, villain will be much less likely to bluff into you in the future. If you lose the hand, villain will still be leary of bluffing into you since you are capable of calling river bet light. You may lose money on the hand, look like an asshat, but think of the future my man.