$16 AJs in CO against a solid regular..call river?

[mortimo]

I had a hard time calling the river..what do u think? The guy is a solid regular with 10% roi
comments on every street appreciated [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2880)
UTG+1 (t1705)
MP1 (t1335)
Hero (t1785)
Button (t1965)
SB (t2405)
BB (t1425)

Preflop: Hero is in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t135</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t85

Flop: (t295) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t175</font>, BB calls t175

Turn: (t645) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t645) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">BB bets t300</font>, Hero..

[bluffbetter]

I think he could have something like 77-JJ on the flop, it doesn't look like he has a king, it's possible he has a set and was trying to get you to bet the turn, unles you know he is very tight passive then you have to call the river.

[RexWoo]

Fold the river.

The raise pre + c-bet are OK but with a board that dry, you are very often beat on the flop when he calls.

[RexWoo]

yes right, this could be 55-TT. Now I don't know.

[StregaChess]

You let him play too cheaply, and that impacts each street and decision you make thereafter. By making it 150 to go and following with a c-bet of 260 on the flop I think the hand will be easier to play.


Thoughts regarding poker analysis? Chess as Poker has a post mortem sort of process that goes on, we do it with HH reviews and chess players sit down and go over the game together afterwards. I read a story about Karpov that he would only look at a game until he thought a mistake was made, when you’ve found a point for improvement that was pretty much the point you discussed and no further. His logic was something along the lines he did not want to clutter or confuse his mind by looking at position that should never have occurred if both sides and played correctly. Now if this story is true or not is not the point. What I wonder is if we’d do well in poker to adopt the same sort of process. Comments?

[dj32]

A bit of a noob question...

I think this is a big difference in the $16+ compared to the lower levels where I play. Are you saying that if villain had a King you would expect a raise on the flop? At the $5.50s villains will call with a K, but not necessarily raise.

[RexWoo]

dj32 : calling is standard with a K

[chuckpalms04]

are we really expecting a 'solid reg' to float that flop with something like 55-TT? maybe tens, but 55-99 i'm thinking not. i think the river is probably a fold tho.

strega - i disagree with your bet sizes. i'll probably raise it up to 150, but a c-bet of 260 puts an awful lot of your chips at risk. I like the OP's bet size on the flop - could have been a little bigger like 190, but probably not more than that - we'll get the same information from a smaller bet.

[mortimo]

Ok, thanks
so a standard-raise preflop is better?
I tend to raise t150 with solid hands like JJ+ and AK, and t135 with hands I`m not so comfortable with in position
I understand now that this is a leak in my game..

flop: so 2/3 pot is standard on a dry board? probably an another leak..

river: I see this is a value-bet most of the time, but I called and he took it down with set 2`s

My roi at the $16`s is about 12,5% now over about 1200 games after a bad-streak..what should it be?

[StregaChess]

[ QUOTE ]

flop: so 2/3 pot is standard on a dry board? probably an another leak..


[/ QUOTE ]

It was just a number I picked, you choose 60% that's fine. It's still 60% of a larger pot which was my real point. If you always bet the same % they won't have anything to go on. If you do vary it, you need to vary it with different types of holdings...