$25NL Deep stacked with AA, Q high board, do I stack off here?

[HBomb]

Villian seems to be a $25 NL regular and has played the most hands with me over the last 2 days... over 400 hands he's at 15/12/5.75


My thoughts here were only that, I can only beat KK here the way this hand was played, and him shoving like this being this deep makes me think otherwise that even if he thought I had QQ or AA that he would be beat by KK... so you tell me?


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $24.75
Hero (BB): $48.85
UTG: $30.75
MP: $25.40
CO: $48.20
BTN: $24.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.25</font>, CO calls $4.25

Flop: ($10.60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $20.00</font>, Hero calls $13.00

Turn: ($50.60) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets all-in for $22.95</font>, Hero?

Results in white..











<font color="white">[i]
Pot Size: $96.50 ($3 Rake)
CO had Q Q (four of a kind, Queens) and WON (+$45.30)
Hero had A A (two pair, Aces and Queens) and LOST (-$48.20) </font>

[Lego05]

IMO you made the decision on the flop....you have to call the turn after calling the raise on the flop.....and it looks good to me.

This is with only half the KK combinations, all the QQ's (obv. no Qs), and all the AQs combos except spades:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

352 games 0.005 secs 70,400 games/sec

Board: 5d 7h Qs 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.807% 58.81% 00.00% 207 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 41.193% 41.19% 00.00% 145 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh }



This is the same as above except just with one AQ combo:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

264 games 0.005 secs 52,800 games/sec

Board: 5d 7h Qs 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, AcQc }




Even all the QQ combos and only half the KK combos:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

264 games 0.005 secs 52,800 games/sec

Board: 2d 5d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh }





I don't see how you can fold this.

[We Major]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO you made the decision on the flop....you have to call the turn after calling the raise on the flop.....and it looks good to me.

This is with only half the KK combinations, all the QQ's (obv. no Qs), and all the AQs combos except spades:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

352 games 0.005 secs 70,400 games/sec

Board: 5d 7h Qs 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.807% 58.81% 00.00% 207 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 41.193% 41.19% 00.00% 145 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh }



This is the same as above except just with one AQ combo:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

264 games 0.005 secs 52,800 games/sec

Board: 5d 7h Qs 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, AcQc }




Even all the QQ combos and only half the KK combos:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

264 games 0.005 secs 52,800 games/sec

Board: 2d 5d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh }





I don't see how you can fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why can't you call the flop and fold the turn to further aggression?

In these situations, with AA, I tend to call the flop reraise. If he has KK he has to be scared that you have AA or QQ so he'd most likely slow down on the turn because he's not beating anything, likewise for J's. On the turn, if he fires all in, being this deep, it weights his range very heavily toward QQ only and I tend to fold this...very few players will play KK this recklessly.

You'd see KK 10% of the time and QQ 80% of the time and air 10% of the time.

Obviously you have to consider the villain. If he's very aggro I never fold this...

You'd also have to have a very good read to pull a bluff like this because most people can't lay down A's even if they know exactly what the line means. So I'd tend to never treat this line as a bluff.

[Panic__NL]

If you call the flop and fold to a blank on the turn you ahve made a wrong decision on the flop. If you think you are good on the flop, then you are still good on the turn.
Given the oddds on the turn you have to call here I guess.
Only hand that beats you is QQ so I would call here, given Villians AF.

[Lego05]

If you meant very many players will play KK this "recklessly" then I agree.

And on the turn there is ~73.60 in pot and you must call ~23 meaning its getting 3.2 to 1. So hero only has to win a little less than 25% of the time to call on the turn. If his range is as narrow as all the QQ's and 1 combo of KK then it's a call at that point:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

176 games 0.005 secs 35,200 games/sec

Board: 2d 5d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 48 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 128 0.00 { KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh }

[We Major]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call the flop and fold to a blank on the turn you ahve made a wrong decision on the flop. If you think you are good on the flop, then you are still good on the turn.
Given the oddds on the turn you have to call here I guess.
Only hand that beats you is QQ so I would call here, given Villians AF.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the solution to making the wrong decision on the flop is to compound the problem and lose more money? It doesn't make sense to me but I also fold in situations like this a lot and I feel like people start trying to run me over like this after they see it happen.

On the flop you call because his hand range is QQ and KK and you're ahead. On the turn he has pretty much defined his hand to QQ so you're behind and fold.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn he has pretty much defined his hand to QQ so you're behind and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No...he hasn't.

[We Major]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call the flop and fold to a blank on the turn you ahve made a wrong decision on the flop. If you think you are good on the flop, then you are still good on the turn.
Given the oddds on the turn you have to call here I guess.
Only hand that beats you is QQ so I would call here, given Villians AF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, villain seems aggro but not stupid. 1. He's deep. 2. His stats are solid over a decent sized sample.

Do you really think this villain commits a 200bb stack with KK in this situation where the only hand he can hope to be ahead of is a poorly played JJ?

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you call the flop and fold to a blank on the turn you ahve made a wrong decision on the flop. If you think you are good on the flop, then you are still good on the turn.
Given the oddds on the turn you have to call here I guess.
Only hand that beats you is QQ so I would call here, given Villians AF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, villain seems aggro but not stupid. 1. He's deep. 2. His stats are solid over a decent sized sample.

Do you really think this villain commits a 200bb stack with KK in this situation where the only hand he can hope to be ahead of is a poorly played JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's also ahead of AQ which I would say our hand looks like. And no I would not be at all surprised for this villian to get KK all-in here. I wouldn't really be too surprised if it turned out he had AQ.

[Genz]

*grunch*

I saw the result, so...
What I first noticed is your big reraise preflop and his call. I think you can narrow his range pretty much to PPs and maybe even AK, AQs. I really don't like his big raise on the flop. This screems strength. I'm thinking SET here a lot. Anyway, if I think I'm good, I push here. I don't flat call and wait for the turn. Pot is huge and you and villain only have a half pot left. No fold equity and you are pretty commited if the turn blanks.
I actually fold here unless I have any indication that I'm good here, like timing tells, history etc. Deep stacked, when the money goes in, a single pair isn't good most of the times especially when there are no draws out there.