flush draw with overcards

Riku · #1 10-27-2006, 12:54 PM

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Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero...

Should i just call here ? If i raise i do so to protect my over cards. But i might already be behind to a flush so pairing one of my hole cards won´t do much good. And even if i make my flush, some one might have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I suck at playing these kind of "flush flops". Usually i give my opponents too much credit.

Absolution · #2 10-27-2006, 01:18 PM

I would probably go for a free card play here as well as trying to buy the button. You might protect against like AQo from button, but otherwise I don't think protection is a huge deal here.

Man of Means · #3 10-27-2006, 01:20 PM

You have enough equity to call. You may try a free card raise if small blind is weak-ish. On a two-flush board with overcards + FD the flop raise is more prudent.

If the turn gives you top pair get ready to raise.

MyNameIs · #4 10-27-2006, 01:23 PM

I would fiqure if I hit the flush, my king high would be good, if it isn't than I'd live with it. With that in mind, I'd give myself 9 outs to hit that flush, and I'd count 1.5 outs each for the overcards...so 12 outs in total. Roughly I think that would come in 45% of the time by the river, with 4 players in the pot, I would raise for value (or maybe its to protect my pot equity?) anyway I would opt for the raise. With three to act behind, someone may have hit a pair, and be willing to call a small bet to see the turn, but not 2 cold. If I can scare them off with a little action, and the SB was drawing to a lower flush...that doesn't come in for either of us, maybe my king high busted fd would be good. At any rate, that is what me thinks.

cold_cash · #5 10-27-2006, 01:34 PM

This spot can be kinda tricky.

You're almost certainly behind to the SB when he bets the flop.

What kind of hand might the button have? Is it likely to be one that you want him to fold, or one that you don't mind him calling with? It's true that if you raise he might fold a better hand, say one like 77, but if you're currently behind to the SB that's not worth a whole lot. I doubt if he'll ever fold one of the hands you actually want him to fold, anyway. He also might call with a worse club draw.

The free card play is somewhat appealing though, so you have to take the pros and cons of getting a free card versus having the Button pad the pot if you just call. Since the pot is pretty big I would lean toward raising unless the SB is unlikely to go limp afterwards.

You're not really "protecting" anything, but you might either get a free card, or get the Button to call with a hand you can outdraw a reasonable amount of the time. (Tx, 99, worse club, etc).

DakotaKid · #6 10-27-2006, 02:27 PM

I think I'd end up raising here if for nothing else just pushing the button out of the hand to clean up our overs-outs against SB. An added benefit is the chance of a free card on the turn for us if we want it.

However, I think SB most likely has at best the nut flush draw but could also have all kinds of pair + draw type hands or even straight draws here. Even if SB has a flush (likely wouldn't donk the flopped nut flush) we've got a bunch of outs left. But I'd put flopped flush in the minority of their hand range here. I think our overs-outs are good against them enough for them to be counted at about four outs total.

If either the button or SB 3-bets this flop I'll call and re-evaluate the turn.

None of button's flush draws are going to fold here since he cold called preflop, and getting either of these guys to put in two bets on this flop with the non-nut draw would be a huge benefit to us.

What would you put as the chances that someone has the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here? Perhaps it's fair to say that given the preflop limp/call by SB and cold call by button maybe 30-40% of the time at least one of them has an ace depending on what type of player they are... And one fourth of those will be the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]... So maybe 7-10% of the time we're behind in a bad way. Thay leaves 90-93% of the time we're either ahead or have a very strong draw.

Does anyone have a good rule of thumb for figuring the chance that the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is out there?

Absolution · #7 10-27-2006, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd end up raising here if for nothing else just pushing the button out of the hand to clean up our overs-outs against SB. An added benefit is the chance of a free card on the turn for us if we want it.

However, I think SB most likely has at best the nut flush draw but could also have all kinds of pair + draw type hands or even straight draws here. Even if SB has a flush (likely wouldn't donk the flopped nut flush) we've got a bunch of outs left. But I'd put flopped flush in the minority of their hand range here. I think our overs-outs are good against them enough for them to be counted at about four outs total.

If either the button or SB 3-bets this flop I'll call and re-evaluate the turn.

None of button's flush draws are going to fold here since he cold called preflop, and getting either of these guys to put in two bets on this flop with the non-nut draw would be a huge benefit to us.

What would you put as the chances that someone has the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here? Perhaps it's fair to say that given the preflop limp/call by SB and cold call by button maybe 30-40% of the time at least one of them has an ace depending on what type of player they are... And one fourth of those will be the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]... So maybe 7-10% of the time we're behind in a bad way. Thay leaves 90-93% of the time we're either ahead or have a very strong draw.

Does anyone have a good rule of thumb for figuring the chance that the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is out there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you giving the overcards 4 outs? I would like to hear the reasoning. 3 outs is standard and I believe a good estimate that has been shown to be accurate emprically. SB could have KT or QT and the button could have those ore even AQ or AK.

NIX · #8 10-27-2006, 02:35 PM

I raise this. There is a pretty good chance that we are drawing to the best hand and unless we are specifically against AcAx or Acxc from the SB, neither of which make of much, if any, of his range, we are drawing live against him.

While I'd prefer the button fold behind us making a free card easier, as long as he doesn't 3bet, it's not a bad thing.

Man of Means · #9 10-27-2006, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd end up raising here if for nothing else just pushing the button out of the hand to clean up our overs-outs against SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a previous post mentioned this only cleans up OC outs vs AQ (or are you trying to fold something like QJ in the event a J happens to come on the turn? How likely is that?). Also, there is only one opponent left to act - so how likely is it that he holds exactly AQ?

A better example (in SSHE) is you hold A9s in a large pot and the flop is 742 with two of your suit. You raise for equity AND to clean up overcard outs since you want AT+ to fold and even KT/QJ to fold since it keeps your pair of nines outs alive if the turn is a K/Q/J/T

DakotaKid · #10 10-27-2006, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd end up raising here if for nothing else just pushing the button out of the hand to clean up our overs-outs against SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a previous post mentioned this only cleans up OC outs vs AQ (or are you trying to fold something like QJ in the event a J happens to come on the turn? How likely is that?). Also, there is only one opponent left to act - so how likely is it that he holds exactly AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Part of my reasoning here was that we could get an Ace-high hand to fold from the button here, and if SB ends up with a busted flush draw our king high could still be good.