50NL BB special under fire

[2outs]

Reads: Villain is 26/11/2.9

Flopped bottom two here but villain seems to like his hand as well. How to proceed?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($16.15)
Button ($12.80)
SB ($42.80)
Hero ($52.30)
UTG ($81.80)
UTG+1 ($20.05)
MP1 ($37.85)
MP2 ($66.75)
MP3 ($42.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero is confused</font>

[RapidEvolution]

With bottom 2, I think I'd let go. Villain will usually have a better 2 pair here or a set. The flop raise was definitely good, and he's pushing back.

[diebitter]

well, given he's pretty aggressive and he completed the SB in a multiway, he hasn't got a big pair, or even good big cards.

That means he could have any two cards, so you're looking at a good draw or a hand better than a pair.

Any hand better than a pair beats you, unless it's a draw.

A draw is much more likely (something like 1/8) compared to 2 pair (I think these occur like 1/50). There a chance of a small set too though...


Let's say 70% chance of a draw, 30% chance of 2 pair or better.

If it's a draw, he's most likely got at least 8 outs, so to see this to the river, he'll hit something to beat you at least 30% of the time.

so that means 70% of the time, you'll win at best 70% of the time, or at the very best 49%.


It's sorta close given you've got dead money in there, but I fold. A push isn't all bad either though. A call is awful here.

[FireStorm]

Fold. This is in all likelihood not a one pair hand from Villain, which means you are facing sets/better two pairs/combo draws. You obviously don't fare well against this range, and he limped the SB.

[skibbel]

This is so often Pair+FD,Combodraw... And Sets+better 2-Pair are much more unlikely.

I'd push but it's high variance.

[RapidEvolution]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.005 secs 4,158,000 games/sec

Board: 5d 2c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.784% 15.78% 00.01% 3280 1.50 { 5h2h }
Hand 1: 84.216% 84.21% 00.01% 17507 1.50 { 88, 55, 22, Tc7c, 9c7c, 85s, 82s, 7c6c, 4c3c, 85o, 82o }


I'm not sure what else is in villain's range, but this looks pretty bleak. Do we really think villain does with with any 2 clubs?

[diebitter]

It really depends what sort of lag he is. Some reads would change the decision from clear fold to marginal push, maybe (or vice versa).

[Albert Moulton]

I'd fold bottom 2-pair here. I think an overpair for SB to play like this is unlikely. So, he might have some combo flush draw, a set, or top two pair. Given that you are OOP without much information, I think it is best to just let it go when he indicates that he's willing to play for stacks by raising your raise on the flop to $20. Basically, if you play past the $20 raise, you're playing for your stack. I don't think this is a good spot for that.

[2outs]

Ok good advice out there. I couldn't resist and shoved. He showed me the mighty 85o.