Squeeze play with weak hand, no FE (NL100)

CalledDownLight · #1 07-10-2007, 06:42 PM

Help a shortstacker out with a simple question. Basically there is no way that this folds around and if it does the last person will call with ATC in my experience, however, the initial raiser who typically has the strongest hand will fold a lot because of the action behind and being oop for the rest of the hand. Is this an ok shove or is the chance of a bigger king AND a mid pair or A4 dominating me just too high?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($84.95)
SB ($104.45)
Hero ($16)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($40.60)
MP1 ($56)
MP2 ($112.95)
CO ($107.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 1 fold, MP2 calls $4, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $16

RyanCMU · #2 07-10-2007, 06:47 PM

When you are doing this with a hand like K4s, you shouldn't be concerned about being dominated and having an inferior hand.

Often times if this goes to a flop anyways you are done with the hand, and that holds true for most of the range you would make a play like this with (we are assuming we are making this play with a bad hand, not talking about the times we do it with a big hand)

So if you are going to make a play like this with a bad hand, I think a more important consideration isn't the strength of your hand vs the strength of your opponents, it should be just your reads on your opponents and their likely hood to fold.

Also, if your going to do this, make your re raise much larger.

CalledDownLight · #3 07-10-2007, 06:55 PM

Ryan, sorry you wrote out a long response, but I'm playing short and this is an AI for me. Also, I know I'm getting called and taking the worst of it in terms of less than 50% to win most of the time HU, but usually I will have the right equity if someone isolates me, which people do lightly. Basically, I was saying that there is a good chance I get called in more than one spot and I was wondering if this was still ok if that happens?

RyanCMU · #4 07-10-2007, 07:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ryan, sorry you wrote out a long response, but I'm playing short and this is an AI for me. Also, I know I'm getting called and taking the worst of it in terms of less than 50% to win most of the time HU, but usually I will have the right equity if someone isolates me, which people do lightly. Basically, I was saying that there is a good chance I get called in more than one spot and I was wondering if this was still ok if that happens?

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored]!!!!

I always forget to check stack sizes..

My fault.

I don't think doing this with K4s then is a good idea if you assume you are going to get called. I really don't like it if you think there is a strong likely hood this gets called.

My first post was trying to convey that like its ok to do this with [censored] hands if you think you don't get called very often. If you are expecting to get called, I really don't like this, becuase the range of hands that calls you, you do not fair well against.

A lot of times a LP initial caller with call your squeeze with hands like KJs, A10, most mid pairs and up. We do not fair well vs this range.

mack848 · #5 07-10-2007, 07:11 PM

I'd suggest playing around with a few ranges and hands in Pokerstove.

I put in a couple of ranges for an UTG raiser and a cold caller both calling your 3bet and had K4s with 24% equity.

With just UTG calling, I get that K4s has around 33% equity.

In both cases I make it very slightly -EV. The chance that no-one will call may well make this move OK.

CalledDownLight · #6 07-10-2007, 07:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd suggest playing around with a few ranges and hands in Pokerstove.

I put in a couple of ranges for an UTG raiser and a cold caller both calling your 3bet and had K4s with 24% equity.

With just UTG calling, I get that K4s has around 33% equity.

In both cases I make it very slightly -EV. The chance that no-one will call may well make this move OK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok...thanks for that and I might have to play around some more. If I had A4s I think its a pretty easy push though.

Ryan...although I am usually behind I will be trapping a lot of dead money in the pot and thus it becomes a pot odds situation. If I get called by Ax and no other hands then its slightly +EV.

effang · #7 07-10-2007, 08:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd suggest playing around with a few ranges and hands in Pokerstove.

I put in a couple of ranges for an UTG raiser and a cold caller both calling your 3bet and had K4s with 24% equity.

With just UTG calling, I get that K4s has around 33% equity.

In both cases I make it very slightly -EV. The chance that no-one will call may well make this move OK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok...thanks for that and I might have to play around some more. If I had A4s I think its a pretty easy push though.

Ryan...although I am usually behind I will be trapping a lot of dead money in the pot and thus it becomes a pot odds situation. If I get called by Ax and no other hands then its slightly +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

why are you even running this play as a SS? I fail to understand. You already wrote out all the arguments against.

plus, you're supposed to do this with legitimately bad hands. i know you can't really afford to just call here, but any KxS hand is worth limping over shoving here. you should be shoving J7o and stuff like that.

GiantBuddha · #8 07-10-2007, 08:44 PM

What range would you think about making a play like this with?

Mr_Donktastic · #9 07-10-2007, 08:50 PM

This is what SSing is all about.

Best case scenario you get more than one caller and someone bets the other out of the pot and you get a showdown HU with like a [censored] of dead $$.

Kinda of like this:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG+1 ($223.15)
MP1 ($192)
MP2 ($92.95)
MP3 ($203.20)
CO ($200)
Hero ($27)
SB ($193.65)
BB ($197)
UTG ($210.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to $6, MP2 calls $6, MP3 calls $6, CO calls $6, Hero raises to $27, 2 folds, MP1 calls $21, MP2 calls $21, MP3 folds, CO folds.

Flop: ($96) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets $65.95 (All-In), MP1 folds.

Turn: ($161.95) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($161.95) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $161.95

Results in white below: 
MP2 has As Ks (one pair, aces).
Hero has 5s 3s (straight, six high).
Outcome: MP2 wins nothing. Hero wins $96 ship it.

GiantBuddha · #10 07-10-2007, 08:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
plus, you're supposed to do this with legitimately bad hands. i know you can't really afford to just call here, but any KxS hand is worth limping over shoving here. you should be shoving J7o and stuff like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero really has no FE, then shoving J7o is awful. I think if UTG has a hand he has to come over the top to get heads up. No one else has shown much strength, and even if he thinks he's a dog, there's a lot of dead money in there. In fact, anyone who gets heads up for just the $16 is getting 3:1 on their money.

My first impression was that this was horrible, but I think it's just a little bad. I think you've got the wrong stack size. If it were smaller and you were likely to get isolated, the price would be better, or if your stack were larger, you'd have some FE. As it is, I think it's a little bit -EV. I'm pretty new to shortstacking, though, and plan on doing a lot of it over the next two weeks (to earn enough FPPs to get a bigger monitor), so I'm very interested to hear what some more experienced shortstackers have to say.