Are you sharp or not? must read, courtesy TrixTrix

[Performify]

Now that I'm done with my predictions for UFC:66, I'm playing catchup on my net reading.

Saw this gem posted on another sports betting forum by TrixTrix, and I'm blatantly stealing it for reposting here, with credit given [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]



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the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOT

the next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies

1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex.

2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc...

3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted.

4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks

5.) how consistently you can beat the average closing line/price (see daringly's post)

6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.



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I think this is really well put and a good point for discussion here - it really didn't receive much recognition at Fezzicks, which was unfortunate as I think its a solid point that outlines quite a bit, especially for those relatively new to capping who want a bit of a roadmap for where they need to be moving towards...

[dankhank]

maybe it's because i got my head kicked in today in all things gambling and i'm in a crappy mood, but i would say that while all these skills are important, they are really the bare fundamentals of being a sharp. a full fledged sharp who actually has a chance to take real money out of sports, has all these things, and is extra good at #3 and constantly working at it.

i personally do very little of #3 and that is why i am mediocre and often frustrated.

[Thremp]

dankhank,

That is your problem. #1 and #2 are much much more important. In fact... You can win money by solely doing those 2 independent of the others... Well I guess you need #6.

[dankhank]

thremp,

you're way off. i do #1 and #2 without even thinking about it or considering it part of the challenge (other than hitting the apex, which takes thought). #6 is also a no-brainer as you mention.

i did #5 all through football season and had lots of success. i am doing #5 even moreso during basketball, beating the close probably 90% of the time, and i am losing money.

everyone's definition of 'real money' is different btw. i don't mean to take your reply so personally, but i am trying to suggest here that people need to take their games to the next level and get outside the conventional wisdom of how to beat sports in these modern internet times, and you are sort of implying that i'm two steps behind, which is funny.

[TheRover]

yes
yes
f no
yes
most of it

[LLXC]

1) Yes. Where my money is at sometimes becomes an issue.

2) No, don't feel I have the bankroll to.

3) Somewhat - trying to use more methods. Currently using some data.

4) Of course. That's what all these sports forums are for.

5) Not sure.

6) Almost there. Still bet a little on pro and college basketball even though I am a loser at it (bet fraction of my units so not a big deal). Love baseball and foots.

In conclusion, I am not a sharp - I wish I was. Maybe I'd have more $$$.

[MyTurn2Raise]

6 of 6
this means I'm a sharp....woohoo [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[MicroBob]

I[m pretty much 0 for 6.

[MacGuyV]

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I[m pretty much 0 for 6.

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Me too. I tend to pick lots of unsquarish home teams & dogs however, though I don't go out of my way to 'fade the public'. I just have this "Madd Dogg Russo" "I think this team will play well this week" system that's been lucky enough to win this year. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[testaaja]

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I[m pretty much 0 for 6.

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I'm not alone [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]