TP + OESD on Turn

[markuisis]

Villain is a pre-flop nit with 14/10 over 300 datamined hands, standard flop line (I was reluctantly calling a shove)? what's my turn line and why?

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $266.90
CO: $328.35
BTN: $522.80
Hero (SB): $600.90
BB: $314.55
UTG: $402.35

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $14</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $12, BB folds

Flop: ($32) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $24</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $80</font>, UTG calls $56

Turn: ($192) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero?

[cheer]

bet for value. He is 3 betting sets and two pair hands and folding out better tens and such. He prob has a hand like QJs but not diamonds, KQdd, Abigdd. and maybe a scared big PP but doubt it. so bet for value 160, hard if he crai bc then he prob has a big PP looking for a safe turn card...but you have plenty of equity so call push.

edit: sorry about the pstove. I just did flop.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,144 games 0.005 secs 228,800 games/sec

Board: Td 7d 9s 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.427% 73.43% 00.00% 840 0.00 { JJ+, ATs }
Hand 1: 26.573% 26.57% 00.00% 304 0.00 { Tc8c }


this stove is only for the CRAI hands he might do this with

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
bet for value. He is 3 betting sets and two pair hands and folding out better tens and such. He prob has a hand like QJs but not diamonds, KQdd, Abigdd. and maybe a scared big PP but doubt it. so bet for value 120, hard if he crai bc then he prob has a big PP looking for a safe turn card...but you have plenty of equity so call push.

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: Td 7d 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.019% 59.22% 00.80% 14070 190.50 { JJ+ }
Hand 1: 39.981% 39.18% 00.80% 9309 190.50 { Tc8c }

[/ QUOTE ]

That equity only applies to getting it in on the flop versus overpairs, I think his hand is mostly overpairs, draws and maybe a strong ten every now and then by the turn. Any other comments?

[ipokeder]

pot

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
pot

[/ QUOTE ]

can u elaborate on why?

[luegofuego]

thats a disgusting preflop call.

checkraise bigger on the flop, probably checkfold turn since ur equity is [censored] now.

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
thats a disgusting preflop call.

checkraise bigger on the flop, probably checkfold turn since ur equity is [censored] now.

[/ QUOTE ]

T8s versus a nitty UTG raiser is digusting? I think the best flop line was probably to b/3b the flop since my fold equity on overpairs on this board is maximized in that case whereas they r almost never folding to one raise and if I get shoved on - I'm almost never ahead.

[ipokeder]

because that's what you'd do with a made hand and nothing else will ever fold out a better hand

[CopTHIS]

Personally, I only call that PF if I have a really good read on villian post flop and he's bad (like giving too much away with bet sizing or never cont betting without the goods etc) or if I'm just generally pissed off about something.

[blankoblanco]

[ QUOTE ]
because that's what you'd do with a made hand and nothing else will ever fold out a better hand

[/ QUOTE ]

referring to b/3b-ing?