60 - KK bubble situation

[madbeetz]

No reads except button is pretty weak as a player. Now, do I instacall this, or fold? You may think folding is crazy, but is may not be bad considering I am covered here... thoughts?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2765)
Button (t2800)
Hero (t2740)
BB (t5195)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t2740 (All-in)</font>, Button calls t2740, Hero calls t2515 (All-in), <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Final Pot (t8695) (3 players)

[madbeetz]

This may seem stupid, but why risk getting sucked out on, when i can fold into the money?

[DevinLake]

If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

[BeerMoney]

No way i'm folding that. You're gonna have to dodge an ace probably.. so what, though. I'd be very happy to get my chips in here.

I don't think this is a place to fold a big hand so you get ITM.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
This may seem stupid, but why risk getting sucked out on, when i can fold into the money?

[/ QUOTE ]

because you have KK

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

he has KK here. i'm not folding.

[madbeetz]

but, there is the chance I will get sucked out on, right? Whereas, if I fold, I am guaranteed to get ITM, right? I am fairly certain folding is correct here. Anyone else care to chime in...

[Sykes]

CO (t2765)
Button (t2800)
Hero (t2740)
BB (t5195)

if you fold and button beats CO:

BTN has 6215
Hero has 2515 ~.282
BB has 4770

if you call and win

Hero has 8645 ~.4275
BB has 4770
BTN has 85


65% equity.

now what range do you put them on?

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
but, there is the chance I will get sucked out on, right? Whereas, if I fold, I am guaranteed to get ITM, right? I am fairly certain folding is correct here. Anyone else care to chime in...

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but if you win, you have a 99% shot at 2nd, and a good shot at first.

if you fold, you have a 99% shot at 3rd, a decent but not great shot at 2nd, and need to get absurdly lucky for first.

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

he has KK here. i'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave CO a range of 40%, Button a range of 10%. Makes this a -2.12% call. I don't imagine changing the ranges will result in the +2.12% gain you would need to make this a call.

So, I stick by my: he has KK, fold.