Pot Odds is only applicable to each bet in isolation, right?

[Poker Plan]

I've put this question in here (rather than "Theory") as it is so fundamental, it may help beginners.

I understand the baisc concept of pot odds and +/-EV, etc.

What I need clearing up is this:

When you face a call on the turn (say), and you work out your pot odds- You can only be considering the break-even point for that SPECIFIC, SINGLE bet you are placing- and not the other bets you have made to get to that point in the hand.

ie.
You have a gutshot on the turn. Your chance of winning is 1:10 (forget the .5).

So...........

If you get at least 10:1 pot odds you call? OK
If you get exactly 10:1 on your call (assume you're all-in), you break even on THAT CALL, NOT THE HAND as played? Is this right?

If you're getting 10:1, then it will (in the long run) pay for the times that the bet doesn't pay off (if that makes sense?) But WHERE do you RECOVER the bets you have made pre-flop, and flop???? Yes they're in the pot and part of the 10 bets- but they're going towards paying for the 10 times that the invested TURN BET misses?

Think of it another way:
You play your hand to the Turn.
You have a gut shot on the Turn
The Pot offers you EXACTLY break-even odds to call- which you do, putting you all-in.
You play the SAME hand a MILLION times- getting the same odds- making the same call.

You can't tell me that your stack would theoretically be the same after a million repeats?


Someone please help me get this straightened out?!!! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]


Many thanks,
Ian

[ottsville]

If you made -EV calls to get to the turn and play the hand out a million times over, your stack will not be the same at the end of trial, it will be less. If you are making +EV calls/bets all the way your stack will be ahead at the end of the trial.

Back to your example:
When you are faced with a call getting neutral odds, it makes no difference if you make the call or not in the long term. You could play the hand out a million times at that specific point and randomly decide to make the call or not...your stack *should* be the same at the end of the trial provided your trial was long enough. If you make EV neutral plays and have the roll to cover variance, you *should* tread water and end up even.


[ QUOTE ]
WHERE do you RECOVER the bets you have made pre-flop, and flop????

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as you are making +EV plays to get to the turn, you are not "recovering" those bets. You are looking at each street in a vacuum using pot odds and can't use an EV neutral turn play to make up for the preceding plays if they were not +EV.

[Poker Plan]

MANY thanks Ottsville.

I'm pretty sure you've answered my query. So it's as I thought- each and evey bet is condsidered (for pot odds) in isolation.

So if on the turn all I had was a back door straight draw to a gut-shot, and then I made the gut-shut draw on the turn: The actual call for the gut shot would be neutral if I was getting 10.5 to 1, but the whole hand so far is probably quite -EV?

In the past when I've stupidly continued past the flop with (say) bottom pair and a BDFD and I've hit the suit on the turn, I've thought "at least I have now made up for the bad play on the flop, because I now have another 9 outs"- that thinking is obviously flawed as the flop bet was "probably" very -EV and I would need more than the 4.1:1 odds to at least make up for the lost equity on the flop bet? Does my understanding seem OK now?

Thanks once again.

Ian

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]

You have a gutshot on the turn. Your chance of winning is 1:10 (forget the .5).


[/ QUOTE ]

Not important, but odds are usually stated as "odds against". I.E. the odds against making the hand you are drawing to are ~11:1.

Those aren't necessarily the odds against winning, though. Sometimes you will hit your gutshot and still lose. That could happen if the board is paired and someone has a full house or if there are 3 or more to a flush on board and someone makes a flush.

[ QUOTE ]
So...........

If you get at least 10:1 pot odds you call? OK
If you get exactly 10:1 on your call (assume you're all-in), you break even on THAT CALL, NOT THE HAND as played? Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But don't forget you may also have positive implied odds-- the extra bet(s) you win when your opponent(s) pay you off. That means that even though the call is 0 EV with respect to pot odds, it can be +EV when considering implied odds.

[AngusThermopyle]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
So...........

If you get at least 10:1 pot odds you call? OK
If you get exactly 10:1 on your call (assume you're all-in), you break even on THAT CALL, NOT THE HAND as played? Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But don't forget you may also have positive implied odds-- the extra bet(s) you win when your opponent(s) pay you off. That means that even though the call is 0 EV with respect to pot odds, it can be +EV when considering implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
So...........

If you get at least 10:1 pot odds you call? OK
If you get exactly 10:1 on your call (assume you're all-in), you break even on THAT CALL, NOT THE HAND as played? Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But don't forget you may also have positive implied odds-- the extra bet(s) you win when your opponent(s) pay you off. That means that even though the call is 0 EV with respect to pot odds, it can be +EV when considering implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

If I got paid for this, I'd read more carefully. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Poker Plan]

Thanks guys.

One more query I'm sure you can help with (related to the first question):-

If on the flop you have odds to call- compared to the break-even point with TWO cards to come- then you MUST see the second card? (ie the turn card)

ie if you are getting 5:1 on the flop and have a gutshot and you call, what happens if you then fold the turn???? You haven't taken the "second chance" in order to help break-even? And not only that- if you do continue, you will (more than likely) need to call at least 1BB to see the "second chance"- thus skewing the original odds?

Sorry if I've messed this up in my mind- but I want to be absolutely clear on how the underlying math works- as it's obviously crucial to a winning strategy.

Cheers,
Ian

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
...if you are getting 5:1 on the flop and have a gutshot and you call, what happens if you then fold the turn????

[/ QUOTE ]
With respect to immediate odds (i.e. current pot odds), then this call is a mistake. It is unrelated to whether you fold on the turn or make a wrong call again on 5:1 odds or make a correct call for 12:1 odds.

This is where Limit and NL differ. If you have certain odds on the flop, you can calculate your odds for two cards because you know the size of the bet for the turn. In NL, the size of the turn bet can be up to the size of villain's stack, so this is much more difficult.

What you trying to get at in general? Your question seems pretty specific. Gutshot draws are usually way to long to chase. However, if you have some other made hand, then gutshots may give you 4 additional outs. I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve with this thread. Please expand for us.

[Poker Plan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve with this thread. Please expand for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just trying to get my head around the math of pot odds in practice, as related to the sequential betting of a poker hand. I'm not looking to discuss actual draws, or hand ranges, etc.

Let's say I've got a gutshot on the flop. I have 4 outs. The pot is 5 bets, and I need to call 1 bet. I am getting break-even odds to make my gutshot with 2 cards to come. So theory says I will break-even on that flop if I see 2 cards. But unless it's checked through, I am now going to have to pay another bet to see the second card. So really I need to be sure that I'll get at least 10.5:1 after my Turn call WHEN deciding to make my Flop call? So what (in reality is the point of saying "I get 5:1 on the flop, so I'll call"???)

Just to reiterate: This is not about any specific hand, or inside striaght draws, etc- it's about the underlying math relating to gambling theory.

Time to dig the books out again.

Cheers


Ian

[AngusThermopyle]

Where do you see anybody saying "I'm getting 5:1 on the flop to draw to a gutshot, so I call"? That is, without the specification that you (or your opponent) will be all in?

Find a post or a book that says that and quote it.