Interesting article on PFR.com

IdealFugacity · #1 11-15-2006, 08:38 PM

http://profootballreference.com/blog/wordpress/

"I looked at all NFL games since 1970, and calculated the winning percentage for each “Points Scored” number. Bill M. was right: teams that have scored 13 points have won 28.5% of their games, while teams that scored 14 points won just 19.9% of their games. Considering over 800 teams have scored 13 points in a game, and over 900 have scored 14 in a single game, there’s no way we could quibble about the sample size."

Very lengthy, plenty of numbers for those of you who like that kind of thing [in this forum, should cover a great deal of you], I'm not sure about its application to betting, but maybe some of you will have some comments

Little_Luck · #2 11-16-2006, 01:49 AM

How does one benefit from using this information?

rush66 · #3 11-16-2006, 01:54 AM

"Very lengthy, plenty of numbers for those of you who like that kind of thing [in this forum, should cover a great deal of you], I'm not sure about its application to betting, but maybe some of you will have some comments"

I think this is him asking the same question.

CieloAzor · #4 11-16-2006, 02:01 AM

I can't come up with a use for it, but it's very interesting nonetheless.

Thremp · #5 11-16-2006, 02:57 AM

BTW teams who score over 50pts per game win alot.

MyTurn2Raise · #6 11-16-2006, 04:05 AM

teams that score 0 never seem to win

IdealFugacity · #7 11-16-2006, 10:01 PM

oh, i wasn't really asking, I just lurk here and don't actually bet on sports at all. this was posted for your enjoyment only, though i love to see the math minds here go through stats in ways that i can't imagine [maybe not so much in this section of the site]

bills217 · #8 11-16-2006, 10:20 PM

I don't see how it can be exploited from a betting perspective, but to me there is a rather obvious explanation for this. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Homer · #9 11-16-2006, 10:43 PM

My guess is this is because when 13 points are scored in a game it's a sign of a defensive, close game, where every point counts, whereas when 14 points are scored it's more likely to be a blowout type game with few FG's. I bet a bunch of teams who scored 14 and lost were down x-7 and got a garbage time TD in a comeback attempt late in the game.

I bet the avg margin of victory when a team scores 14 pts is much higher than when a team scores 13 pts. Someone check for me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

bills217 · #10 11-16-2006, 10:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My guess is this is because when 13 points are scored in a game it's a sign of a defensive, close game, where every point counts, whereas when 14 points are scored it's more likely to be a blowout type game with few FG's. I bet a bunch of teams who scored 14 and lost were down x-7 and got a garbage time TD in a comeback attempt late in the game.

I bet the avg margin of victory when a team scores 14 pts is much higher than when a team scores 13 pts. Someone check for me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

winnar