PLO8 100 - Flopped the underfull, fold to the 4-bet?

[YKMM]

UTG is 25/6/0.7 in 600 hands. Grit my teeth and fold to the flop 4-bet?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $1.00 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($289.35)
Hero ($101.55)
UTG ($115.85)
Button ($62.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, Button calls $1, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $15.2</font>, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $49.4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $114.85</font>, Hero ....

[Omaha8sPoker]

I'd be really shocked that he had 64 because the odds just aren't there...I would say he has a 6 with a low draw...I'd run it on twodimes and see your equity against a 6 with a low draw...I'd say you're not that big of a favorite...Might be better here to exercise a little bit of pot control because most likely he has a lot of outs to get at least half or fill-up bigger than you...

[T50_Omaha8]

Fold getting 3 to 1?

That's a little tough against his range, which could include a naked 6. Plus you have 2 outs to an overfull it you're really swamped.

[franknagaijr]

Boy, that is a jam. A26x is very plausible for villain, in which case villain is 62% to hit low, and 40% to hit high over the next two cards, and since you can only hit a miracle low. Do you know enough to villain to think he might be pushing A235 (and didn't preflop raise it?) or A257?

I think the right line would be to attempt to creep to the river like a calling station.

Once the hole was dug with the third repot, you are now getting 3 to 1, with the chance of drawing dead, and villain is 60% freerolling for half the pot in any case.

Your total pot equity of the if you call $53 for $206 in the pot is currently best case scenario (vA235) $141, middle case (A26x) $99, 2nd worst case (v64xx) $12, and nightmare case (66xx) is $0.10.

If you had a read on villain as a full-fledge donk and could assign a probability of 50% to A257, and split out the worse scenarios, your expectation for that $52 call is $98.

If you beef up case 2 (A26x) to 50%, your expectation is now 81$ for an investment of $52. If you had no read on villain, and put case 3 (64xx) as 50%, your expecation drops to $59.

So it all comes down to your read on villain. If no read, or you see villain as a nut peddlar (so many nut peddlars....), then it's a clear fold on the third repot.

[lwrunner103]

UTG is 25/6/0.7 in 600 hands. Grit my teeth and fold to the flop 4-bet?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $1.00 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($289.35)
Hero ($101.55)
UTG ($115.85)
Button ($62.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 7, 7, 4.
UTG calls $1, Button calls $1, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4) 4, 6, 6 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.8, UTG raises to $15.2, Button folds, SB folds, Hero FOLDS